Calgary Flames 2023-24 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings

By Shayna Goldman, Dom Luszczyszyn and Sean Gentille

Everything that could go wrong for the Flames last year did go wrong. They struggled to turn chances into goals, they struggled to get wins while dominating the shot clock, and they struggled to win close games. By all accounts, the Flames were still a good team — everywhere except for where it actually mattered.

That should change this year as many players look primed for bounce-backs and are likely invigorated by a new face behind the bench.

It’s unlikely the Flames can still be a true contender this season, and it’s possible that going for it might be the wrong direction for them entirely given their current free-agent situation. But on the basis of talent within their roster, the Flames should be a lot better than they’re given credit for. This is a playoff team.

The projection

The West is pretty wide open and the Flames have a deep enough team to climb back into the playoffs after a one-season hiatus. The Flames are an on-again, off-again team that has spent the last decade yo-yoing between missing and making the playoffs. Look for this to be a year in which they make it.

A change behind the bench should help toward that goal, even more than projected for here. Jonathan Huberdeau returning to superstar form would go a long way, too. But even if that doesn’t happen and a new coach doesn’t make a profound impact, the Flames still have a team worthy of squeezing in.

Just getting in shouldn’t be the goal though, considering how old the roster is. With so many key pieces potentially heading for the exits at season’s end, this is a make-or-break season toward proving whether or not Calgary can still contend. It’s certainly not impossible, but after last season’s disappointment, it’s a lot tougher to see happening this year.

The most likely landing spot for Calgary is just outside the league’s top 10. There’s a path to contention if everything goes right, it’s just not the most realistic scenario. What is realistic is Calgary proving both sides of the coin right: that the Flames are good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to do anything once they get there.

Percentiles with the bar graphs are based on each player’s Offensive, Defensive and Net Rating relative to their time-on-ice slot, i.e. the first forward is compared to other first forwards only.

The strengths

One of the biggest strengths for the Flames is simply the fact that this team is going into the year with a completely refreshed vibe behind the bench. The Darryl Sutter era is over, and maybe ended a year too late. Ryan Huska’s not a new face in the organization — he’s been an assistant coach in Calgary and was head coach of their AHL affiliate before that. But he brings a more innovative approach on the ice; his work at the NHL level, specifically on the team’s aggressive penalty kill, is evidence of that. But most importantly, he represents a culture shift. Management is likely hoping that will have a positive impact and help a number of players rebound this season.

While so many players in Calgary disappointed last year, this team projects to have the 13th-best Net Rating in the league, at plus-20, with the offense and defense on nearly level terms.

Someone who contributes to Calgary’s Offensive Rating is Nazem Kadri, at a plus-7. His scoring rate was pretty average compared to years past, and the fact he didn’t convert on a lot of his chances is a big reason why. But it wasn’t for a lack of trying considering the center’s shot volume and quality. As far as second-line centers go, he’s one of the stronger ones in the league.

Kadri stood out among his teammates as one of the most frequent shooters, and that’s going to be all the more important without Tyler Toffoli on the roster. At five-on-five, Kadri was one of the leaders in bringing the puck into the zone with control and generating chances in transition. And his shooting profile wasn’t one-dimensional, either; he recovered dump-ins well and generated shots off the cycle.

Another player who took a step back in the goal-scoring department last year, despite an uptick in his shots and scoring-chance creation, was Andrew Mangiapane. As it stands, he looks pretty average relative to other fourth forwards. But there’s a lot of potential here for a bounce-back if he can get back to the level he was at during his breakout season a year prior. At his best, Mangiapane can make key plays to shift from defense to offense and rush up the ice. That’s what the Flames need more of.

They also need a lot more from their bottom six, which was a big issue last season. That should change this year with Milan Lucic and Trevor Lewis out of the picture, an underrated addition by subtraction. With Adam Ruzicka becoming a regular and spots open for young players like Matthew Coronato and Walker Duehr, the Flames should have more depth scoring at their disposal. Jakob Pelletier will be out for an indefinite amount of time after undergoing shoulder surgery, giving them one fewer option, which likely means more minutes for Kevin Rooney. The ability to roll four lines should make Calgary much more imposing.

Where the Flames really stand out though is on the back end. The blue line is perfectly balanced between their Offensive and Defensive ratings, for a Net Rating of plus-18 that ranks sixth in the league. The only teams to rank higher are the Golden Knights, Bruins, Rangers, Avalanche and Hurricanes — that’s pretty good company.

Five of the six projected mainstays are above average relative to a player of their position, with the standout being MacKenzie Weegar. While his plus-8 obviously matches Rasmus Andersson, it’s more valuable to see that level from someone who is slotted as a team’s No. 3 in four fewer minutes without the bonus of power-play offense. Weegar was Calgary’s top-rated player from our Top 125 players list earning rave reviews from those within the game for his all-around ability.

“He might be one of, if not the best neutral zone defender in the NHL for defensemen,” one analyst said when talking about his placement in this year’s Player Tiers. “The mixture of puck-moving and defense is probably one of the most underrated (mixes) of skills you can have. Because then you can put that guy with an offensive player and they can cover the defense while not letting them down. Or you could just say we need a shutdown pair and they can both do the defense and he can still get the puck out of the zone. … The ultimate versatility.”

We saw that over the last two years with Weegar as he earned similar results — 57 percent of the expected and actual goals — playing different roles. With Aaron Ekblad, he provided defensive cover on an offensive-minded pair. With Chris Tanev, he provided ample shutdown ability while being a strong puck-mover. Weegar may not stand out, but his results should speak for themselves and are worthy of a larger role on Calgary’s blue line.

Currently ahead of Weegar on the depth chart are Andersson and Noah Hanifin, both of whom would look a lot better if they slid down one spot. But with the Flames as deep as they are, it doesn’t really matter as long as the pairs are optimized, and it’s the overall strength that helps balance out some of the weaknesses at the top.

Andersson has strong offensive instincts and scored 50 points last season, but would likely be better suited playing Weegar, who could fill in the gaps in his game. He was fairly underwhelming at five-on-five last year with his zone entry defense and puck movement out of the zone, two areas where Weegar thrives. The duo played 280 minutes together last season, earning rave results — 55 percent of the expected goals and 62 percent of the goals — and have the potential to form a very strong top pair. It’ll be especially helpful if the Flames start playing a game more suited to his style, too.

That would leave Hanifin with Tanev, which would round out a top four that grades out as the league’s third-best behind only Colorado’s and Carolina’s. Tanev, a defensive specialist who can move the puck, should pair very well with Hanfin, who does well creating in-zone offense. There’s a lot of wear and tear with his playing style, but he’s someone the Flames can trust to shut down top competition. The duo also found success in their 317 minutes together — 65 percent of the expected goals and 54 percent of the actual goals — so it’s pretty mind-boggling that this wasn’t the more frequent top-four configuration.

That leaves some further room for optimism with regard to Calgary’s defense corps, as the Flames appear likely to start the season with a more optimal top-four formation. That should help maximize everyone’s skills and do a better job of bringing out the best results possible which could elevate Calgary further than expected.

Add a dependable Nikita Zadorov on the third pair and the potential return of Oliver Kylington, whenever that may be, and the Flames back end looks to be a significant source of strength for the team at both ends of the ice.

The weaknesses

While the vibes may be up after the coaching change, there still is something looming over the team: the contract situations of three pending unrestricted free agents. Toffoli was already moved proactively. Now the question will be whether Elias Lindholm and Hanifin come to agreements, are moved ahead of the deadline, or walk as free agents next summer.

Lindholm’s going to be one of the more interesting situations because he can ask for a really hefty new contract. The problem is, as it stands, he really doesn’t measure up as well as he could to teams’ No. 1 forwards. With a plus-10 Offensive Rating and defensive strengths, he’s obviously a very good center to have. But he’s been thrust into a higher standing since the Flames moved out his mainstay wingers. With two high-end wingers ahead of him, he’d rate really well as a team’s No. 3 forward. Unfortunately, the Flames need him to be more than that.

The same is true for Huberdeau. He doesn’t currently measure up as a team’s No. 2 forward or leading winger. Maybe the heights of his career-best years aren’t attainable — there were some sustainability issues with some incredibly high-scoring seasons, after all. But last year’s level isn’t nearly enough. The one bright spot is that his defensive game actually improved within the Flames’ structure, but any hope of a playoff berth rests on him regaining his offensive power.

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The average top two forwards on a playoff team have an Offensive Rating of plus-31, well above Lindholm and Huberdeau at plus-19. That’s probably Calgary’s biggest problem.

Rounding out the top three is Mikael Backlund, who doesn’t help with that. He generally doesn’t thread the needle offensively, but is coming off a scoring year of 2.26 points per 60. That, combined with his Selke-level defense, makes him a pivotal part of this Flames team — just not as their third most-used forward. If the Flames slot him on the third line in a disruptor role with Blake Coleman, that would make for a strong duo, but Backlund likely won’t provide enough offense for anything more than that. Not at his age, when a drop in scoring is expected.

In terms of offense, the Flames really only have four weapons they can count on as drivers. They don’t have any real drags, especially at the bottom, but there isn’t really anyone able to step up as a dependable scoring option in the top six if needed. There are a bunch of players who grade out well in the bottom six, but the minute they’re asked for more, that’s where there’s trouble. It puts added pressure on the top guys, pressure they’ll have a hard time living up to.

Some depth forwards, like Coleman, are helped by the fact that they have strengths back in their own zone, but a spot on the second line with Backlund is asking too much. Someone like Yegor Sharangovich has rebound potential after a down year in New Jersey. But on the top line next to Lindholm and Huberdeau — neither of whom are Jack Hughes — is likely above his depths. He’s no play-driver, but the Flames may not have many other options.

Another forward in a secondary role who stands out for all the wrong reasons is Dillon Dube. The winger can help generate some chances in transition and has benefited from spikes in his shooting percentage. But he was a negative on both ends of the ice, relative to his teammates, at five-on-five. He has the lowest Defensive Rating on the team.

The forward group isn’t completely bad, it just doesn’t stack up very well to other playoff teams — which shouldn’t be a surprise as the Flames are the 19th-best group. That can be mitigated with some offensive bounce-backs, and the Flames will need them because they also have question marks between the pipes.

Jacob Markstrom struggled through much of last season. While it seemed like he started to find his footing late in the year, it was a big step back from his outstanding career year in 2021-22. It’s possible those heights were a bit inflated from his actual value, but Calgary needs him to be better than just average, which is how he ultimately ended up last year. The 33-year-old netminder is expected to fall just below what’s expected of an average starter this season.

Dan Vladar isn’t exactly inspiring in a greater role than necessary. Dustin Wolf could add some intrigue if he sticks at the NHL level. But the most likely solution is betting on Markstrom, and re-assessing down the line if need be. The Flames starter has the support of the team’s defense, he just needs to respond better to his workload.

The wild card

Will a change in coaching help this team generate offense?

It’s clear that Huska has a mess to clean up, but it’s also worth stating offensive production wasn’t at the top of the Flames’ pile of issues in 2022-23. At five-on-five, they produced 2.97 expected goals per 60, which was seventh in the league, and 2.8 actual, which was eighth. Only one team league-wide, the Panthers, generated more shots.

The process, in other words, certainly could’ve been worse. Calgary was good at generating volume and solid at generating quality. But that quality was highly dependent on rebounds and less on east-west movement from passes. Getting pucks to the net works, but it can get stale and predictable and lead to games lost despite a huge edge on the shot clock.

The other issue was the Huberdeau of it all. The franchise’s new foundational player was clearly unhappy under Sutter and his play cratered along with his mood. It’s a bit of a chicken/egg situation — and regardless of the order of operations, Huska needs to have Huberdeau at his best. Part of that, simply, will be getting him to shoot more. Huberdeau is one of the best passers of his generation, but his best runs in Florida also involved a little more shot generation for himself. Last season with Calgary, in fact, he put up the worst individual shot rate (5.67 per 60) and attempt rate (10.49 per 60) of his 11-year career, well below league average. “Don’t always pass up an open shot for a skillsy pass” is a bit of advice that probably applies here, and one that would go a long way.

Another area for improvement could be the power play; Calgary was 19th in goals and 15th in expected goals per 60 there. The projected unit (Huberdeau, Kadri, Lindholm, Mangiapane, Andersson) doesn’t feature any new names, with Mangiapane taking over most of Toffoli’s minutes. Toffoli had been the Flames’ most productive power-play producer, though, so Huska has his work cut out for him there as well.

The best case

Calgary’s stars are rejuvenated away from Sutter, led by a return to 90 points from Huberdeau and contract-year excellence from Lindholm. The Flames’ balanced attack and defensive might lead the team on a deep run through the playoffs, past their Alberta rivals. A proof of concept that this team can still contend.

The worst case

The Flames lock up Lindholm to a too-expensive deal early only to see the team cling to the playoff bubble for the majority of the season. Calgary is stuck in irrelevancy, locked into an aging, mediocre core that’s too good to rebuild and not good enough to contend.

The bottom line

It’s still difficult to look at the Flames’ roster and not think about how sideways things went for the organization in the 2022 offseason. They’re still feeling the after effects — not just due to Johnny Gaudreau’s last-minute swerve to Columbus and Matthew Tkachuk’s trade request, but because of the attempts they made to counteract their departures. Very little about this roster suggests it’ll ever have a better shot at winning relevant games than it does right now — and even then, the window is as closed as it is open.