If you have been playing fantasy football for any amount of time, you know that no position is more vital than team defense. Sure, having Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is nice. Cleveland running back Nick Chubb is fine. Minnesota wide receiver Justin Jefferson is OK. Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is… whatever. But if you don’t have a productive team defense, your season is sunk like the Lusitania.
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(Note: The name of that ship was literally the only part of that paragraph grounded at all in reality.)
The truth is, team defenses don’t matter in the vast majority of fantasy football leagues — it’s an argument for playing with Individual Defensive Players (IDP), but don’t get me started there. In NFL.com default fantasy scoring, the No. 1 defense in 2022 (the New England Patriots) outscored the No. 12 defense (the Green Bay Packers) by 3.6 fantasy points per game — and that number is higher than most years. Not exactly a game-changing number, and certainly lower than any other position save (shudder) kickers.
However, for some managers, any edge is an edge, so you will see teams attacking the position relatively early in pursuit of an elite unit. Per Fantasy Football Calculator, this year the first defense off the board is the San Francisco 49ers, with the first pick of Round 11.
That’s what is called, in technical terms, a bad idea — for more than one reason. The first is that “edge” you can theoretically get by taking that elite defense. The 49ers are being taken ahead of Raheem Mostert of the Dolphins and Kenneth Gainwell of the Eagles, both of whom are ostensibly at least the nominal lead backs for their teams. Cincinnati wide receiver Tyler Boyd. Denver quarterback Russell Wilson. Tennessee tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo. All are coming off the board behind San Francisco — I’d gladly take them all over any defense.
The reason? That 3.5 fantasy points or so per week those managers are chasing? Good luck catching them. There are tons of moving pieces on team defenses that can change from year to year. Players move on. Coaches change. Schemes are tweaked or completely changed. Never mind that many of the stats defenses rely on for fantasy production (like sacks and takeaways) are inherently fluky.
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News flash. The Eagles’ defensive line is fantastic. But they aren’t piling up 70 sacks again this year.
Given all that can change from year to year, defenses are incredibly difficult to predict from one season to the next. Granted, last year’s top-drafted defense (the Buffalo Bills) did pretty well, finishing fifth in fantasy points. But the No. 1 defense in terms of ADP (the Pittsburgh Steelers) in 2021 finished the year 16th in fantasy points. The highest-drafted defense in 2020 (the San Francisco 49ers) finished that season a dismal 25th. In 2019 the Chicago Bears had the honor of coming off the board first among defenses. They finished that year 23rd in fantasy points.
Noticing a trend?
Wasting real draft capital on a position with a long history of being a crapshoot is just that — a waste. However, there is a strategy for approaching team defenses on draft day that can secure you the fantasy production you want without the price you don’t.
In fact, there’s more than one.
PLAN A: Living the Stream
This is a strategy that quite a few fantasy veterans employ, and one that I use in the vast majority of my own leagues, because it works, and it’s cheap. Actually, I prefer the term frugal.
It’s not difficult. Rather than looking at team defense as a position where you’re making a season-long investment, wait until very late on draft day (like the next-to-last round) and target a defense with favorable matchups early. There isn’t a more matchup-dependent position in all of fantasy football than defense, and finding bad offenses and leaky offensive lines to exploit can afford your squad elite defensive production at a deep discount. Then, when the favorable matchup(s) dry up, simply drop that defense onto the waiver wire and start over.
It can be a little risky early in the season — basing matchups on last year’s offensive and defensive performances isn’t an exact science. But it’s still the best way to get value on defense, and there are a few teams that stand out as targets ahead of Week 1.
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Green Bay Packers
Between last year’s lackluster season and the departure of Aaron Rodgers, the enthusiasm level in Green Bay this year is… subdued. But the Packers defense is actually pretty good. Green Bay was sixth in pass defense last year and 12th in fantasy points. Whether it’s tackle Kenny Clark, edge-rushers Rashan Gary and Preston Smith, linebackers De’Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker or cornerback Jaire Alexander, there’s talent at all three levels.
However, what gets the Packers top billing here is a soft schedule to begin the season. After traveling to Chicago to face the Bears in Week 1, the Packers head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons and then host the New Orleans Saints. Two of those teams (the Saints and Bears) both ranked outside the Top 20 in scoring offense a year ago and inside the Top 10 in fantasy points allowed to defenses.
Washington Commanders
Not that long ago, the Commanders were being hailed as the next great fantasy defense. But the team collapsed in 2021 before rebounding a little last year to finish the season an impressive third in the league in yards allowed per game and inside the Top 15 in fantasy points. However, despite one of the more loaded defensive lines in the entire league and an excellent duo of safeties in Kamren Curl and Darrick Forrest, the Commanders are being selected outside the Top 15 defenses on average per Fantasy Pros.
This party admittedly only lasts two weeks — when the Buffalo Bills visit the nation’s capital in Week 3 it’s off to the waiver wire for the Commanders. But Washington’s first two opponents (the Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos) were both Top 10 fantasy matchups for defenses, and in the opener the Cardinals will probably be trotting out Colt McCoy at quarterback.
Carolina Panthers
If you’re the patient sort who really wants to wait until that penultimate round to draft a defense, then the Panthers are the unit you want. And rest-assured, no one else does. The Panthers weren’t a good defensive team in 2022 by just about any estimation. But whether it’s edge-rusher Brian Burns, linebacker Frankie Luvu or a loaded safety corps headlined by Jeremy Chinn, there’s talent in Charlotte — as well as a respected new defensive coordinator in Ejiro Evero ready to lead it.
Again, this is probably a two-week rental, although the Panthers’ Week 3 matchup at Seattle isn’t as bad from a fantasy perspective as it might first appear. But it’s the first two weeks of NFC South games against the Falcons and Saints that are the real appeal here — two matchups with offenses that struggled a year ago who have at least some questions at the game’s most important position.
PLAN B: Upside Weekly Starter
Some fantasy managers aren’t that keen to turning-and-burning a different defense every week or two. Maybe their league has a maximum number of transactions allowed per season, and they don’t want to waste them on a defense. Perhaps their league charges actual cash for in-season roster moves. Maybe they just don’t want to be bothered. Whatever gets the job done — I don’t think I’d want to pay actual scratch to play musical defenses either.
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However, if you desire a defense that you can just plug into the lineup every week, you don’t have to pay a Top 5 premium to get it. Just as with matchup plays, there are some teams in the 8-14 range in ADP that are undervalued in 2023.
The best part about this plan? If a defense doesn’t meet expectations, the lost draft capital is easily written off — and Plan A is still on the table.
New Orleans Saints
Last year, the Saints were an example of the disconnect that can exist between good NFL defenses and good fantasy defenses — the team was a Top 10 unit in both yards and points allowed, but a lack of those fluky big plays I mentioned earlier relegated New Orleans to fantasy irrelevance. However, prior to 2022, the Saints had peeled off three straight Top 10 fantasy finishes, and they have the pieces on paper at all three levels to field what could be the NFC South’s best defense in 2023.
The NFC South is one of the things that makes the Saints an attractive lower-end weekly starter this year — nine wins may take that division, and the Buccaneers, Panthers and Falcons all have major questions offensively. New Orleans also benefits from a relatively favorable three-game slate to open the season — home against the Tennessee Titans, and then on the road against the Panthers and Packers.
Baltimore Ravens
There isn’t a defense in the league I’m targeting harder if I can get them than the Ravens. Baltimore was a respectable ninth in fantasy points last season. The edge-rushers are young and unproven, but there’s depth and upside galore. Roquan Smith is arguably the best off-ball linebacker in the league. If safety Kyle Hamilton takes a step forward in Year 2, the secondary could be among the NFL’s best. The Ravens were third in points allowed in 2022, and that defense could be better in 2023.
And yet, none of that is why I’m targeting the Ravens, who could be a drop candidate as early as Week 2 when they take on the rival Bengals. But in Week 1, the Ravens play host to a Houston team led by a rookie quarterback making his first start after finishing last year in the bottom-three in both yards and points per game and second in fantasy points per game surrendered to defenses.
Denver Broncos
OK, so calling the Broncos an “every-week starter” is probably pushing it — after all, this is a team that has to play Kansas City and the LA Chargers twice. But despite that AFC West gauntlet, the Broncos still allowed just over 21 points per game a year ago and ranked seventh in yards allowed. Vance Joseph was retained by Sean Payton as defensive coordinator this year, so there should be continuity on that side of the ball. The Denver offense may be a question, but the defense is solid.
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Not only that, but the Broncos open the season at home against the rival Raiders — a team that has all kinds of turmoil on offense as Week 1 nears. Then comes a Washington team led by a fifth-round QB making his third career start. The Miami Dolphins in Week 3 are a far less favorable opponent, but that’s a Week 3 problem.
(Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports)
