After a bunch of key early season injuries, it’s been relatively quiet on the injury front in recent weeks. That changed on Monday morning, when the Knicks announced that Mitchell Robinson will miss a minimum of 8-10 weeks after undergoing surgery on his left ankle.
We’ll start by examining which Knicks players will benefit the most from this injury, before moving on to other musings around the league.
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Mitchell Robinson out for an extended period
Based on the timetable, there’s a very good chance we won’t see Mitch-Rob in action again until after the All-Star break, and the Knicks will have to adjust accordingly. But before we get to who the fantasy beneficiaries are, let’s remember that Robinson was out for two key stretches during the 2022-23 season. First, he missed eight games in early November, and then another 14 games during January and February.
During that latter stretch of last season, Jericho Sims was bumped into the starting lineup for Robinson, averaging 25.2 minutes, 4.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, 0.8 assists and 0.4 blocks per game over that 14-game span. Over those same games, Isaiah Hartenstein averaged 23.6 minutes, 5.6 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.3 blocks per game. So Hartenstein was the superior fantasy option during Robinson’s last injury stint, but he wasn’t a must-start player, and Sims limited his upside by quite a bit. Will the same thing happen again?
Let’s examine the key beneficiaries…
Josh Hart — I’m going to start with Hart rather than Hartenstein because I believe this will transform Hart from being a fringe fantasy option to being a must-start player in competitive leagues. The veteran has struggled with his role thus far, but an increase in playing time should help him find his comfort zone. He was fantastic when the Knicks acquired him at the end of last season, averaging 10.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.5 blocks and 1.1 threes in 30 mpg, while shooting over 58% FG and 78% FT. I think we’ll see him produce similar numbers over the next few months, so consider making a lowball trade offer for Hart before his fantasy manager wises up.
Isaiah Hartenstein — Over the weekend, I made the switch from Kevon Looney to Hartenstein in one league, and I suggest making a similar move if you’re in need of center help. For the reasons mentioned above, I don’t expect Hartenstein to start playing 28+ minutes every game, but as long as he’s playing over 23 mpg, he should be helpful in deeper leagues.
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Jericho Sims — Prior to Monday’s game, Sims had only received garbage time minutes this season. But sure enough, he got the starting nod for Robinson on Monday. Quite simply, Sims’ strengths closely resemble Robinson’s, with less defensive ability but more raw athleticism. He’ll be helpful if you’re looking for a field goal percentage boost, given that 61 of his 83 made field goals last season were slam dunks. But unless he’s playing 30+ mpg, he’s not a must-add player.
RJ Barrett — A recent shooting slump has hurt Barrett’s overall numbers, but one has to love that he’s made 67-of-79 free throws heading into Monday’s game after shooting just 74% FT last year. If he can regain the efficiency that he had at the beginning of the season, while also receiving a couple more touches per game, it would be welcomed by his fantasy managers.
Julius Randle — Randle’s scoring efficiency has been way down this season, but more minutes as a small-ball center could help him turn his season around. As a result, he seems like a solid buy-low candidate currently.
Donte DiVincenzo; Immanuel Quickley; Quentin Grimes — While Robinson hasn’t been a high-usage player, the trickle-down effect should help out this trio of guards as well. For example, even if their playing time doesn’t go up initially, it surely would if another injury were to strike one of New York’s rotation players. For Quickley, a few extra minutes could lock him into starting lineups, while DiVincenzo and Grimes could earn more staying power in deeper leagues.
Not much help for Luka Doncic = Add Derrick Jones Jr. and Dante Exum
The Dallas Mavericks aren’t exactly loaded with talent, and recent injuries have really depleted them. On Monday, Kyrie Irving, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Grant Williams all sat out due to injuries, so others were forced to step up. I think the most trustworthy option right now is Jones Jr., but he left Monday’s game early with a bruised quadriceps. In 20 starts this season heading into Monday’s game, DJJ has posted 9.9 points, 3.8 boards, 0.9 blocks and 1.7 threes per game, while shooting over 48% from the field. It’s that combination of shot-blocking and efficient 3-point shooting that makes him intriguing, and it’s not surprising that his 3-point shooting has spiked playing alongside Luka.
The former lottery pick Exum has now strung together a couple of really nice games in a row, averaging 19.5 points, 5.0 boards, 6.5 assists and 1.5 threes over his past two games. Exum has never proven to be very fantasy-relevant in the past, but some seasoning overseas seems to have helped him gain confidence and round out his game. It might not be long-lasting, but he’s worth adding until his minutes start to fade. In ultra-deep leagues, you can consider adding Jaden Hardy if Irving’s heel injury lingers for a while.
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Bradley Beal is back = Move on from Grayson Allen and Eric Gordon
Both Gordon and Allen have been sneaky valuable during the first seven weeks of this NBA season, but few could have predicted that both players would currently be averaging over 32 minutes per game. The return of Beal is going to have a negative impact on both players, so you should probably look to replace them, assuming Beal doesn’t suffer a setback on Tuesday. Allen and Gordon will still have strong games from time to time, but the consistency won’t be there unless one of their stars suffers another injury.
Someone else’s loss is your gain = Add Ausar Thompson
Thompson has been one of the most dropped players over the past 10 days due to Monty Williams benching him and slicing his minutes in half. But I didn’t consider dropping him in my high-stakes leagues because the Pistons are going nowhere fast, and they’d be foolish to not play their prized rookie big minutes moving forward. On Monday, he flourished against the uptempo Pacers, scoring 20 points on 8-of-10 shooting with his usual defensive goodies.
Victor Wembanyama at center = Sorry Zach Collins
Collins was extremely reliable and valuable over his first 20 games of the season, but a San Antonio mind-shift might turn him into a fringe fantasy option moving forward. To improve their floor spacing, Wemby has started the past two games at center, with Collins coming off the bench. Collins still had a fine game last Friday, but he played just 14 minutes on Monday, an ominous sign if you’ve been relying on him.
Meanwhile, the Wembanyama at center experiment has resulted in 19.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 4.5 blocks per game after a two-game sample. Not bad, eh? He picked up the first 20-20 game of his career last Friday and, mark my words, sooner or later we are going to see him drop a 30-20-5-5-3 game (30+ points, 20+ rebounds, 5+ assists, 5+ blocks and 3+ threes). According to Statmuse, the last player to accomplish that feat was DeMarcus Cousins in 2017. Let that be a reminder of how awesome Boogie Cousins used to be!
Still no timetable for Bam Adebayo’s return = Add Orlando Robinson?
Monday marked the fourth straight game that Adebayo had to sit out, and there still isn’t much clarity on when he’ll return from his hip injury. Robinson might be worth a look in deeper leagues, as he’s averaged 27.3 minutes, 12.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.7 blocks and 1.3 threes over his first three spot starts. Kevin Love is still doing Kevin Love things as well, but he has a lower fantasy ceiling at this point in his career.
Rookie point guards trending up = Add Scoot Henderson and Keyonte George
When I’ve suggested adding both Henderson and George in previous columns, I’ve been met with some pushback. Yes, I’m well aware that both players have struggled with their shot-making early on, as they’re still adjusting to NBA defenses. But I also know that if you want to make shrewd fantasy decisions, sometimes you need to focus on skill sets rather than stats, and try looking forward rather than backwards.
Despite coming off the bench, Henderson has played 30 minutes in each of the past two games. And he just had his finest game as a pro, netting 19 points with 6 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 blocks and 3-of-4 shooting on threes against a tough Clippers squad on Monday. Malcolm Brogdon’s presence makes the picture a little cloudy still, but I expect steady growth from Scoot the rest of the way.
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As for George, he’s coming off a 30-point outburst against the Thunder, where he shot 10-of-17 from the field and 5-of-9 from deep. Over his past 13 games, he’s averaging 14.5 points, 5.7 assists, 2.1 threes and 4.7 free throw attempts per game, while making 79% of those freebies. Now that he’s settled in and gained confidence, hopefully the return of Lauri Markkanen will help to boost his efficiency as well.
Both the Trail Blazers and the Jazz are currently in the bottom four of the standings in the Western Conference, suggesting that they’ll continue to allow their rookie point guards to play through their struggles. I’m not saying they’ll be super dependable moving forward, but I think we’ll be seeing more and more big games out of them.
(Photo of Victor Wembanyama and Mitchell Robinson: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)