The 149th running of the Kentucky Derby will take place Saturday at Louisville's Churchill Downs.
This race has had no shortage of drama over the past decade or so. Fans have seen the beginning of two Triple Crown runs in 2015 (American Pharoah) and 2018 (Justify). Maximum Security won it all in 2019 before being disqualified for interference, leading to Country House taking it home at 65-1.
Another disqualification took place two years later when Bob Baffert-trained horse Medina Spirit tested positive for betamethasone, leading to Mandaloun's win.
Finally, 80-1 Rich Strike shocked the world last year by winning with the second-longest odds in Derby history.
This year doesn't feature any super long shots like Rich Strike. However, odds-on favorite Forte was scratched from the race Saturday morning. As a result, Tapit Trice (9-2), Angel of Empire (9-2), Derma Sotogake (7-1) and Two Phil's (8-1) are now the horses with the shortest odds.
Here's a look at the post positions and odds alongside predictions.
Post Positions and Odds
- Hit Show: 26-1
- Verifying: 16-1
- Two Phil's: 8-1
- Confidence Game: 17-1
- Tapit Trice: 9-2
- Kingsbarns: 10-1
- Reincarnate: 13-1
- Mage: 17-1
- Skinner: Scratched
- Practical Move: Scratched
- Disarm: 24-1
- Jace's Road: 32-1
- Sun Thunder: 30-1
- Angel of Empire: 9-2
- Forte: Scratched
- Raise Cain: 30-1
- Derma Sotogake: 7-1
- Rocket Can: 27-1
- Lord Miles: Scratched
- Continuar: Scratched
- Cyclone Mischief: 30-1
- Mandarin Hero: 21-1
- King Russell: 32-1
Win: Tapit Trice
Tapit Trice rolls into the Kentucky Derby with wins in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes. He has won four of five lifetime races. Luis Saez will serve as the jockey. He notably won the 2021 Belmont Stakes with Essential Quality.
Tapit Trice obviously benefits from Pletcher's training, and he's looked good in the lead-in to the Derby:
Kentucky Derby @KentuckyDerbyTAPIT TRICE (outside) and his workmate breeze 4 furlongs in :48.20. <a href="">#KyDerby</a> <a href="">
Kentucky Derby @KentuckyDerby"This horse just really seems to float well over the surface."<br>- Rosie Napravnik about <a href="">#KyDerby</a> contender TAPIT TRICE. <a href="">
Nicole Russo @DRFRussoTapit Trice has looked very relaxed and curious schooling this week. <a href="">#KyDerby</a> <a href="">
Tapit Trice's issue is that he's not particularly known as a good starter:
Chris Crestik @ChrisCrestikTier-ranking the Kentucky Derby starters on how well they break from the gate. <br><br>This isn't based off of early speed but rather the first two or three steps out of the gate.<br><br>No colt ranks in the S (superb) tier. <br><br>While Jace's Road ranks highest and Tapit Trice ranks lowest. <a href="">
If he wins, chances are it will be the result of another strong finish.
Place: Confidence Game
Confidence Game enters the Kentucky Derby riding the high of a surprising win at the Rebel Stakes in February. That race included a win over two fellow Derby competitors in Verifying and Reincarnate.
He hasn't raced since then, but trainer Keith Desormeaux doesn't appear to have any worries about that or the horse in general.
TwinSpires Racing 🏇 @TwinSpiresHighlights from last night's Kentucky Derby Trainer's Dinner, part 1! 🌹 <br><br>Keith Desormeaux was the first trainer to be put on the mic. 🎤 <br><br>Hear his reasoning for bringing Confidence Game into the Derby off a 70-day layoff! 🏇 <a href="">
Ray Paulick @raypaulick"You guys are running for second," trainer Keith Desormeaux says when asked by <a href="">@TheBrownAndrew</a> about his confidence level for Confidence Game at <a href="">@KYTbred</a> Derby Trainers dinner
Jockey James Graham exuded confidence about the colt as well.
Kentucky Derby @KentuckyDerby"He's a happy horse, he does everything right, and he likes this racetrack."<br><br>Jockey James Graham talks about <a href="">#KyDerby</a> contender CONFIDENCE GAME: <a href="">
By numerous accounts, Confidence Game is looking good heading into Saturday:
Kentucky Derby @KentuckyDerbyCONFIDENCE GAME works five furlongs in :59.<a href="">#KyDerby</a> <a href="">
TVG @TVGKentucky Derby Contender CONFIDENCE GAME is in the paddock schooling at Churchill Downs. <a href="">@ChristinaFDTV</a> reports and let's us know how he looks.<br><br>The FanDuel TV Plus app is your place for on-site coverage of live racing from Churchill Downs and exclusive Kentucky Derby content <a href="">
Mike Welsch @DRFWelschTapit Trice(again) and Confidence Game at the top of the list impression wise during Derby-Oaks session. Two Phil's made a very good first local appearance. Among the gals Southlawn Defining Purpose & Gambling Girl all sharp once again. Recent arrival Skinner due out at 9
Mike Welsch @DRFWelschDerby-Oaks session over. Most notable thoughts relative lack of activity from Practical Move since arrival locally. Just jogged once around with pony today. Lots of gate schooling including Rocket Can who made great impression. Confidence Game back to track, looked great as well
Overall, there's reason to feel good about Confidence Game even at 20-1 odds.
Show: Angel of Empire
Angel of Empire has moved atop the odds ledger after the Forte scratch. It's easy to feel confidence in his chances, especially after a good week of prep:
New York Post Sports @nypostsports'Disarm and Angel of Empire have been the two stars at workout mornings…'<br><br>Action Network's <a href="">@SeanZerillo</a> and <a href="">@DHenryTV</a> talk dark horse contenders and best tips for prospective betters ahead of Saturday's Kentucky Derby<br><br>Watch: <a href=""> <a href="">
His trainer (Brad H. Cox) and jockey (Flavien Prat) have both won Kentucky Derbies. Cox trained Mandaloun to victory in 2021. Prat rode Country House to first in 2019.
Angel of Empire is also coming into this race off an impressive Arkansas Derby victory. He's won four of his six lifetime starts, including a win at the Risen Star Stakes in February.
For all the latest betting information and reaction, check out B/R Betting.
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