No. 11 North Carolina State vs. No. 1 Purdue (Saturday at 6:09 p.m. ET on TBS)
Of the 12 games played in the past six Final Fours, seven were decided by double digits.
And, unfortunately for both the long-suffering NC State fans and the throngs who just jumped on this bandwagon in the past couple of weeks, it's likely that this game will keep that trend going.
It's possible the Wolfpack will shock us again. Maybe DJ Horne and Jayden Taylor come out on fire from the perimeter while Purdue has a rough shooting night in Phoenix. Or perhaps this officiating crew calls a pair of early ticky-tack fouls against Edey and completely alters the trajectory of this game within the first 10 minutes.
In all likelihood, though, this is where the incredible run ends for NC State, with DJ Burns Jr. unable to get anything going in the paint against Edey, and with the Wolfpack's three-point defense regressing to the mean against an excellent perimeter attack.
Prediction: Purdue 85, NC State 68
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Connecticut (Saturday at approx. 8:49 p.m. ET on TBS)
Of the two games on Saturday, this is the one more likely to result in an upset, as Alabama has shown repeatedly throughout the season that it can catch fire against anyone.
But can the Crimson Tide do anything to stifle UConn's attack?
Because for as potent as Alabama can be on offense, the Huskies are even a little bit more efficient. And these defenses could not be much more disparate, with UConn ranking fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to Alabama at No. 104.
Maybe Alabama does what 16 of UConn's last 19 opponents could not do and averages better than one point per possession on offense. The problem is the Huskies might average around 1.3 points per possession when they have the ball.
Prediction: Connecticut 91, Alabama 80
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 1 Connecticut (Monday at 9:20 p.m. ET on TBS)
Connecticut has been my pick to win it all since early January, and that's not about to change now.
But this should be an awesome game if it happens.
Can UConn neutralize Edey with Clingan and Samson Johnson?
Will Connecticut's many-pronged attack take advantage of a Purdue defense that rarely forces turnovers?
Could the Huskies' grad transfer from Rutgers (Cam Spencer) be the star?
Or might it be Purdue's grad transfer from Southern Illinois (Lance Jones) making the difference?
We'll dive more heavily into this matchup if the favorites take care of business Saturday, but it could be an instant classic.
Prediction: Connecticut 69, Purdue 67
