The NBA Christmas slate is unique in that all five contests are island games. There are no back-to-back situations to be wary of and the matchups feature the best of the best that the league has to offer.
Starting at noon ET and ending with a 10:30 p.m. tip off, there are five games with some of the biggest brand names in the sport. Television ratings for Christmas games are often the highest for a regular season game and the stars usually shine. Let’s dig in.
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All odds via BetMGM. All times are Eastern.
Noon on ESPN
These teams have faced each other three times this season, with the Bucks being favored in all three and winning all three. The Bucks won in Milwaukee by scores of 146-122 and 110-105, and that was before Knicks’ starting center Mitchell Robinson was lost for the season. Ruh roh. On the season, the Knicks are 13th in defensive rating. In the six games since losing Robinson, they have been 20th. It’s a small sample size, but the defense gets a downgrade going from Robinson to Isaiah Hartenstein. One of the games in that sample size was the Bucks handing the Knicks a 130-111 beat down in MSG on Saturday.
Scoring isn’t the problem for either of these teams. Over the last 10 games, the Bucks and Knicks are both in the top five in offensive rating. The difference is that Milwaukee has been 10th in defensive rating while New York is down at 26th.
Trying to deal with the Giannis Antetokounmpo–Damian Lillard duo has been brutal for opposition and New York has had no answers for it. In addition, that duo has opened up Milwaukee’s 3-point shooting prowess. The Bucks have converted at least 50 percent of their 3-pointers in all three games against the Knicks. Khris Middleton is now being unleashed, averaging 28.9 minutes per game in December after languishing below 20 minutes for much of the early season.
2:30 p.m. on ABC/ESPN
The last two NBA champions will square off on Christmas. The Nuggets have continued their winning ways this season, led by All-Galaxy forward Nikola Jokić. The Warriors are one game above .500 team due to a plethora of issues. The Warriors have won five in a row, but will have to travel to Denver, where the Nuggets are 11-2.
These teams played once this season, with the Nuggets winning 108-105 at home on Nov. 8. Draymond Green did not play in that one, but he won’t play in this one either. The Warriors are a different team with Kevon Looney not seeing as many minutes and Andrew Wiggins now coming off the bench. Trayce Jackson-Davis, Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga have provided a jolt of youthful energy to the Warriors lineup, but Looney’s size may be needed to match up with Jokić in this one.
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For the Nuggets, Jamal Murray did not play in the first meeting and he is now back to being at his best. Murray had a season-high 32 points on Friday at the Nets. Since returning to full-time action 10 games ago, Denver is 7-3 and has won four in a row.
Golden State is the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the league, but Denver has the size to clean up the defensive glass. They limited the Warriors to 11 offensive rebounds in the first meeting, two below their season average. In addition, we know the Warriors like to make it rain from downtown, but Denver has been 10th in opponent 3-point percentage.
5 p.m. on ABC/ESPN
The Lakers were hobbled and limping, having lost four straight and five of six games, but they were able to defeat the Thunder on the road on Saturday to gain some momentum heading into their showdown on Christmas. The Celtics, on the other hand, have been one of the best teams all season and have won seven of their last eight games. Boston has dominated at home, yet to lose a game, but they are 8-6 on the road and this game is in Los Angeles, where the Lakers are 10-3.
The star power will be out in full force in Los Angeles and I expect LeBron James and Anthony Davis to shine. Will that be enough though? Boston is first in offensive rating on the season and 11th in defensive rating. The Lakers are sixth in defensive rating, but it’s been the offense that has been the problem at times, ranking 24th in offensive rating on the season.
A key piece to the puzzle is the health of Kristaps Porziņģis, who is dealing with a sprained ankle and is expected to be out for Monday’s game. He does things that no one else on the Celtics roster can replicate and makes an impressive starting lineup lethal.
8 p.m. on ESPN
Philadelphia and Miami are two of the three teams that didn’t play on Saturday, so they will be coming into this one with two days rest. Philadelphia had played in two games with two days rest and won both. Miami played in four such games and won three of them.
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These teams have not played against each other yet this season. It’s a battle of contrasting styles as Miami is methodical on offense, playing at the 28th-fastest pace while Philadelphia is eighth.
Many were calling for Daryl Morey’s head during the James Harden debacle, but this 76ers team has the best net rating by a wide margin. They are fourth in offense and boast the top defense. Joel Embiid is playing at an MVP level right now and is on quite a heater, while Tyrese Maxey has complemented him well. Coming into this Christmas game, Philadelphia has won eight of the last nine games and covered the spread seven times.
Miami has been banged up, though. Bam Adebayo just returned for three games after missing seven straight. Tyler Herro has played the last three contests after missing 18 straight and Jimmy Butler has missed the last two games. His status is up-in-the-air.
Miami was favored, but the line moved in favor of Philadelphia on Saturday night to make the 76ers favorites now. As a home underdog against the spread this season, Miami is 0-3 while Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS as road favorites.
10:30 p.m. on ESPN
Phoenix has really struggled recently. The Suns are 3-8 in the last 11 games (1-10 ATS) in the last 11 games, and have especially struggled on offense. Dallas hasn’t been so hot either, dropping four of the last six.
These teams have also not faced each other yet this season and Phoenix is the third team to not play on Saturday. This game is in Phoenix, where the Suns are only 7-8. Dallas is a healthy 9-6 on the road.
Since Luka Dončić joined the Mavericks, the team was middle-of-the-pack in pace but then really slowed down from Years 3 to 5, being amongst the slowest teams in the league. This year, though, they are 10th in pace. Phoenix, on the other hand, has been very methodical, playing at the 25th-fastest pace.
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That said, Phoenix is favored by a significant number. As home favorites, though, they are 4-8 ATS while Dallas is only 1-5 as road underdogs. Will the dynamic duo of Devin Booker and Kevin Durant keep the carolers from singing HalleLuka?
(Photo of Stephen Curry: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)