The College Football Playoff matchups are set, and though there’s not an obvious top-five draft prospect in the four-team field, there is a ton of talent split between the rosters of Michigan, Washington, Texas and Alabama.
Which players will NFL scouts be watching on Jan. 1? NFL Draft experts Nick Baumgardner (previewing the Michigan-Alabama matchup) and Diante Lee (Washington-Texas) rank the top prospects for each team and break down their pro outlooks.
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1. J.J. McCarthy, QB
McCarthy’s arm talent remains first-round quality despite his lack of opportunities within Michigan’s run-heavy structure. It’s still not a slam dunk McCarthy declares for the 2024 draft, but he’s been terrific in so many areas this season — from third-down efficiency to how he’s handled pressure — and has shown immense growth all over the place.
There is much more to like than to dislike here. When all the smoke clears, McCarthy likely will be a first-round pick, be it in 2024 or ’25.
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2. Roman Wilson, WR
Perhaps the biggest draft riser on Michigan’s roster, Wilson has been McCarthy’s best friend as a dependable Z receiver who can work from the slot.
A physical player at 6 feet, 192 pounds, Wilson could stand to have more bulk on his frame, but few receivers in this class work as hard against contact. Wilson has just one drop this season, and 78 percent of his catches have gone for a first down (31) or touchdown (8).
3. Donovan Edwards, RB
Edwards hasn’t been as productive this season as a home-run threat, which likely will affect his value in the eyes of some pro scouts. Still, his ability to run routes like a wide receiver remains intriguing and — if he turns pro — will have him higher on a few boards than Blake Corum, his much more productive teammate.
Edwards is more of a zone runner, and Michigan’s a gap-heavy team, which has made Corum a better fit. But Edwards has never really complained.
4. Blake Corum, RB
Corum broke Michigan’s single-season record for rushing TDs (24) and just tied the career mark (55; he has 57 total TDs). He was not as productive in 2023 after meniscus surgery in late 2022 — he posted a career-low 23 forced missed tackles this year, way down from 73 a season ago. He’ll also arrive in the NFL with a lot of wear (636 career rushing attempts and counting).
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Still, Corum’s vision and physical competitiveness as a gap runner are incredibly valuable. He’s also one of the country’s fiercest pass protectors and a highly respected player.
Blake Corum set the record for most TDs in a Michigan career last night.
We gave all 5️⃣7️⃣ (!) of them the reel treatment. 👇@blake_corum x @UMichFootball
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) December 3, 2023
5. Kris Jenkins Jr., DT
An athletic freak, Jenkins plays with terrific power and explosion off the ball as a run-stuffing three-tech who could play heavy end. He’ll test extremely well for his position in every category, especially the agility drills.
Jenkins has a combined 60 run stops over the past two seasons. He can rip through a block or run down a back, but he needs to be more consistent.
Honorable Mention: Edge Jaylen Harrell, DB Mike Sainristil, G Zak Zinter (injured), G Trevor Keegan, WR Cornelius Johnson, G LaDarius Henderson, S Rod Moore
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No. 4 Alabama
1. JC Latham, OT
The 6-foot-6, 335-pound junior is the best pure right tackle in this draft class. A house of a man with incredible strength in the run game, Latham moves his feet well enough to make him a true force.
So far in 2023, Latham has allowed just 11 pressures — never more than two in a game. The key to consistency with Alabama’s run game starts here. (Though, for our money, sophomore Tyler Booker might be the most talented offensive lineman in this game.)
2. Dallas Turner, Edge
Turner is a freaky fast and explosive edge who is still growing as a complete pass rusher, but his ability to pair pure power with closing speed may be unmatched at his position.
He is a complete athlete who moves very well in space at 240-plus pounds — a three-down edge who can be used as a coverage piece. Michigan and Alabama have similar prospect numbers, but the Crimson Tide have way more top-50 talent, and Turner is a prime example. He is currently top 10 nationally in pressures (52) and top 15 in win rate (19.7 percent).
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3. Terrion Arnold, CB
One half of Alabama’s outstanding outside corner duo, Arnold has seen a ton of work playing opposite Kool-Aid McKinstry — and he has performed brilliantly. The rock-solid Arnold (6 feet, 195 pounds) has broken up 12 passes this year to go along with five interceptions and 13 forced incompletions.
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McKinstry might be the better prospect, but preference probably will depend on the team. Arnold is the more physically competitive of the two, as he never shies away from contact in coverage or the run game. He runs well, he’s smart and plays as hard as anyone on Alabama’s roster.
Tip Drill! 👏@ArnoldTerrion
📺 CBS
— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) November 5, 2023
4. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB
The longer of the two mentioned cornerbacks, McKinstry (6-1, 195) is also the more balanced athlete. His body control is terrific, and he’s an extremely confident and calm corner. Some scouts actually might think McKinstry is too calm, to be honest, especially when they watch Arnold operate on the other side of the field.
But there are reasons why Arnold sees more targets, and both players have similar coverage numbers in terms of efficiency. Bottom line: Alabama is very hard to beat outside the numbers.
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5. Chris Braswell, Edge
Braswell is the older (and a bit heavier) version of Turner. He’s also turned himself into a very productive three-down edge piece who can check just about every box.
Turner is going to rate higher on the “athletic freak” scale, but that’s not to suggest Braswell isn’t an outstanding athlete himself. And, like Turner, his blend of length and burst off the line of scrimmage is a serious problem for tackles in third-and-long situations.
Honorable Mention: WR Jermaine Burton, QB Jalen Milroe, C Seth McLaughlin, DL Tim Smith, RB Jase McClellan, S Malachi Moore
No. 2 Washington
1. Rome Odunze, WR
Odunze is the engine of this offense. He’s in the top 10 in total EPA on his targets, and he’s one of the three most valuable vertical threats in this class (behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers).
There’s more to his game than what we’ve seen at Washington, too. He can create after the catch, runs a decent route tree and has the size to body up any kind of defensive back. He’s not quite the future star Ja’Marr Chase was coming out of LSU, but don’t be surprised to hear that comparison.
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2. Bralen Trice, Edge
Trice is the kind of four-down rusher that NFL teams will heavily covet. At 273 pounds, he has the power and base to push the pocket or set edges in the run game. He has just eight combined tackles for loss and sacks, but his tape shows how often opponents avoided him — and he still had a 16-percent pressure rate.
Trice features good hand usage and a high motor, which means he can move around the line of scrimmage on passing downs (something Washington did more as the season wore on). He has the potential to be a high-end secondary rusher for any 4-3 defense.
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3. Troy Fautanu, G/T
Fautanu is a powerful run blocker with a play style designed to thrive in an inside-zone and gap-scheme world. His low pad level and center of gravity help him move bodies on base blockers, and he has enough short-area burst to get winning angles at the first and second levels.
He has the physical dimensions to be a swing lineman, too, projecting well on the interior but capable of playing tackle in a pinch. He’s better at pass setting laterally than vertically and is a bit too reliant on pure strength to be a lights-out left tackle, but there’s a good foundation.
4. Ja’Lynn Polk, WR
A contested-catch machine, Polk works through traffic at the intermediate level. He’s not the kind of burner teammate Jalen McMillan is or the all-around threat you see in Odunze, but he can win against press or tight coverage consistently. He has done so this season to the tune of 1,000 yards and six touchdowns.
Polk (6-2, 204) has the size to play above the rim, and he was often Washington’s go-to option for goal-line fades and throws at the sticks (65 percent of his receptions moved the chains or put points on the board). He’s not a flashy yards-after-catch threat, but he’s reliable, and more traditional passing offenses will love the idea of him as a big slot or X receiver — especially if he proves to be a tenacious run blocker.
What a CATCH by Polk 🔥@UW_Football
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) December 2, 2023
5. Jalen McMillan, WR
McMillan missed a significant chunk of the 2023 season, but he’s a serious speed mismatch outside or in the slot. McMillan is more of a stop-start runner than a shifty creator with the ball in his hands, and he accounted for more than half of his receiving yards after the catch.
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Coming into the season, there was some talk that McMillan could be another first-round talent, but Odunze proved to be more central to this offense — even when McMillan was healthy. He’s still a potential game-breaking talent you can design a vertical passing game around and a potential top-100 pick.
Bonus: Michael Penix Jr., QB
It probably looks odd for the one Heisman finalist of this bunch to be this low, but it’s no insult to be slotted behind so many top-100 locks.
Though Penix always has been willing to take big chances downfield, the most impressive part of his 2023 tape was how poised he remained against tough competition. He pushed through pain during Washington’s first game against Oregon to deliver the go-ahead drive. He made the necessary throws to beat Oregon State and Washington State. And in the rematch with Oregon, Penix stood tall against the blitz and picked the secondary apart.
His throwing motion is a lot to take in. What we do know, though, is that he’s one of the most consistently accurate passers in this class and has the necessary arm talent to make it in the NFL. Left-handedness aside, his game is reminiscent of Tua Tagovailoa, and he would fit an under-center, heavy-play-action offense well.
Honorable mention: DT Tuli Letuligasenoa, Edge Zion Tupuola-Fetui, RB Dillon Johnson
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No. 3 Texas
1. Xavier Worthy, WR
Texas’ offense is built to allow for any of its skill-position talent to star in a given week, but Worthy has consistently found his way to explosive performances. He’s is a sudden runner, one of the rare athletes that can get to top speed from a dead stop nearly instantly. He’s gained 969 yards on his 73 receptions this season, toggling between manufactured touches and finding voids in coverage downfield.
Worthy is a bit undersized and doesn’t quite have the play strength of a DeVonta Smith, so expect him to be in the slot or off the ball in the NFL. He’s gained 56 percent of his yards after the catch and has ironed out some of his frustrating drops. The type of instant offense that he creates makes Worthy an easy second-round grade.
PUNT-RETURN HOUSE CALL FOR XAVIER WORTHY 🏠
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 28, 2023
2. Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE
Sanders is one of the country’s most productive receiving threats at his position — he ranks top 20 in total EPA as a receiver and in yards per route run. He has excellent body control and ball-tracking skills, so he’s able to catch the ball outside of his frame in ways that few tight ends can. He’s a load to bring down in the open field, too, with an impressive stride at 6-4, 240.
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Sanders is not the kind of blocker you’d want to see quite yet, nor is he as unique an athlete as Kyle Pitts, but he can line up all over the field (36 percent of his targets came from the slot or outside). He will be a good value in the second round.
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3. Byron Murphy II, DT
It’s a matter of preference between Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat. The former has some serious springs in his hips and feet, as evidenced by how often he’s the first out of his stance and how much knock-back he gets on first contact. Don’t be surprised if he has the top 10-second split and broad jump at his position at the combine. Murphy is a disruptive force from the interior (eight TFLs, 5.0 sacks and a pressure rate of more than 17 percent).
It’s made all the more impressive by how often he aligns as a nose or shade. His hip mobility makes him hard to double-team or displace on zone runs. He’s a fun watch and arguably the DT with the highest pass-rush ceiling in this class.
4. T’Vondre Sweat, DT
Sweat is the thunder to Murphy’s lightning, using his 350-plus-pound frame to anchor down against combo blocks and downhill-run schemes. Sweat moves around the defensive interior, and his best tape features his power and impressive get-off. He’s a functional mover in spite of his wide base, and he uses his quick hands to get angles on linemen. His eight TFLs and 10-percent pressure rate prove he’s not just a space-eater, either, and he has six batted passes.
Sweat’s biggest issues will be fit and usage. Jordan Davis is the size of a Greek Titan, but the modern game makes it hard to get those kinds of guys on the field as often as you’d like. Teams that run a 3-4 will like Sweat, but there may not be enough of a market to push him into the top 50.
5. Adonai Mitchell, WR
Mitchell is the kind of receiver that can be significantly better in the NFL than we’ve seen in college, but his up-and-down production makes you wonder what’s missing. He has the speed to take the lid off of a defense, the footwork to win against tight one-on-one coverage, the catch radius to win at the highest point and the raw physicality to body up defensive backs.
Inconsistency is the only thing holding him back. There were questions about work ethic and dedication at earlier points in his career, and there still are games in which it feels as though he isn’t commanding the kind of defensive attention his talent should.
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Honorable Mention: RB Jonathon Brooks, QB Quinn Ewers, DB Jalen Catalon, LB Jaylan Ford, WR Jordan Whittington
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College football is as scared of the unknown as the known, and rightfully so
(Photos of Dallas Turner, Rome Odunze and J.J. McCarthy:
Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images; Zach Bolinger, Jesse Beals / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
