Raptors, Hawks and Bulls: Analyzing the race for the East’s eighth seed

You would like to think there are certain guarantees in the NBA. When a team has given up on most pretenses of trying to win, you figure it is going to lose games against any team playing for anything.

That’s why they play the games, as has been noted. San Antonio beat Atlanta in Dejounte Murray’s return to his old home Sunday afternoon, surrendering a 24-point lead against the team with the worst net rating in the NBA. With Miami winning in Detroit and owning the tiebreaker over the Hawks, the Heat’s three-game lead in the Southeast Division seems safe.

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That will put the focus for a trio of teams — Atlanta, Toronto and Chicago — on the race for eighth place in the Eastern Conference standings. After Toronto lost in Milwaukee in a close game on a back-to-back, the Hawks (35-36) have a half-game lead over the Raptors (35-37), who are two games up on the Bulls (33-37). Indiana and Washington sit a game and a half behind the Bulls. The Pacers are not out of it but need help with a lot of wins from teams who lose frequently.

Eighth place is crucial. The team that finishes there not only would have two chances to win one game to make the playoffs, but the first crack could be against a flawed team, either Miami or Brooklyn. If they lose that game, they’d still get to host the winner of the game between the ninth and 10th seeds to make the playoffs. Both of those teams would need to win two straight to make the playoffs.

Here is what you need to know about the race:

Tiebreakers

It’s good to have this accounted for just to check on April 9 when the season ends. In anticipation, all three teams play 1 p.m. ET games on the last day of the season, with the Hawks in Boston and the Raptors and Bulls hosting the Bucks and Pistons, respectively.

Atlanta beat the Raptors two out of three times this year (that Scottie Barnes missed layup looms large), and the Raptors beat the Bulls two out of three times this season. Both of those teams are done playing each other. In the case of almost any two-team tie — more on that “almost” in two paragraphs — the winner of the season series is the first tiebreaker.

The Bulls have defeated the Hawks two out of three times, but they play once more, April 4 in Chicago. In head-to-head games, all three teams are currently 3-3, with the winner of that last game getting the tiebreaker and the loser finishing in last in the case of a three-way tie. In a tie between Atlanta and Chicago, conference records would come next if Atlanta wins to split the season series, with Chicago two games up on Atlanta. However, it would be very difficult, mathematically, for Atlanta to beat Chicago yet still finish with the same record, considering Atlanta entered Sunday two games up on the Bulls in the overall standings.

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Back to that “almost.” If the Hawks win their division, that would mean they would win any tiebreaker between those three teams. Of course, that also would mean the Hawks pass the Heat. The Bulls are 4-2 combined in games against the Raptors and Heat. The Raptors are 3-2 against the Heat and Bulls, and the Heat are 1-5 against the Bulls and Raptors, with one last game between the Raptors and the Heat left in Toronto on March 28.

Tiebreakers for divisional titles must be broken before ties in conference standings, so in a four-way tie, Miami would finish in the top spot, having beaten Atlanta three out of four times. Give it up for divisions.

(Give it up for divisions, Part 2: The Raptors, playing in the division with four of the six top seeds in the Eastern Conference, catch a bad break this season. You are guaranteed to play your divisional rivals four times each year, while you play other teams in your conference either three or four times. That means the Raptors play 16 games against the Celtics, 76ers, Knicks and Nets, and all of their four games against the Nets came before Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant were traded. The Raptors are 4-9 against Atlantic Division opponents, with two games left in Boston and one in Philadelphia.)

To summarize:

Two-team tiebreakers: Miami > Atlanta; Atlanta > Toronto; Chicago > Atlanta (probably); Toronto > Chicago; Toronto > Miami (probably); Chicago > Miami
Any multi-team tie involving both Atlanta and Miami: Miami finishes first, normal tiebreaker rules apply for remaining teams
Toronto-Atlanta-Chicago three-way tie: winner of April 4 game between Atlanta and Chicago > Toronto > Loser of Atlanta-Chicago game
Toronto-Miami-Chicago three-way tie: Raptors > Bulls > Heat if Raptors beat Heat on March 28, Bulls > Raptors > Heat if Heat beat Raptors.

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Simple.

Difficulty of schedule

Strictly looking at the winning percentage of their opponents, the Raptors have the toughest remaining schedule (52.1 winning percentage, including their game against Milwaukee on Sunday), and Atlanta has the easiest (50.1, which jumps up after their loss to the Spurs on Sunday). Chicago is at 51.2.

At this point of the year, the details of the broad strokes of schedules have generally evened out. After Sunday, the Raptors — who are markedly better at home than on the road — will have five games left in Toronto and five elsewhere. Atlanta will have seven home games and four road games remaining. Chicago is at home for five and away for seven.

The Hawks have three back-to-backs left. Chicago has two (although no travel for one), and the Raptors have one.

At this time of year, some teams don’t necessarily have much to play for. With that in mind, I’ve divided each team’s remaining games into four categories: games in which they’re heavy favourites, slight favourites, slight underdogs and heavy underdogs.

Race for 8th, remaining schedules

This makes all sorts of sweeping generalizations, such as the Celtics and 76ers going all out for the remainder of the regular season to try to finish ahead of each other, and the Bucks potentially being locked into the top seed by the last game of the season when they play the Raptors. Also, it probably underrated the friskiness of teams such as the Pacers, the Wizards and even the Hornets, who are 7-7 in their last 14. Also, both the Bulls and Hawks have shown the ability to beat and lose to any team, regardless of circumstance this year. I once again point to Sunday’s Spurs-Hawks result. The Raptors tend to have the most predictable results of the three.

How are they playing?

Ah yes, this seems pertinent. As much as anything else, how these teams are currently playing has a chance to upend the projections. Momentum doesn’t tend to matter much heading into the playoffs, but a team’s overall record isn’t necessarily as indicative of its near-future performance as a team’s recent record.

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Accordingly, let’s go back to the trade deadline, when the Raptors acquired Jakob Poeltl, the Hawks got Saddiq Bey (and, soon after, changed coaches) and the Bulls … well, the Bulls did nothing.

• Including the loss to the Spurs, the Hawks were 8-8, with a 0.7 net rating, sporting a good offence and bad defence.
• The Raptors are 9-7, with a net rating of just 1.0 prior to their loss in Milwaukee. Meh offence, good defence.
• The Bulls are just 7-9, but have the best net rating, 3.1, of the bunch. That has been the result of the fourth-best defence in the league during that time. On the other hand, without a 44-point win over Brooklyn on Feb. 24, they are essentially even for that stretch.

You’re not going to believe this, but teams that have shown themselves to be mediocre all season continue to be mediocre. There are things to like about their play, most notably how much Poeltl has stabilized the Raptors’ previously wobbly defence — the Raptors were allowing just 106.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor before Sunday. These three teams have one five-plus-game winning streak between them (Atlanta won five in a row in January). To expect that to suddenly change? Probably unwise.

Finally, all three teams are as healthy as they have been all year. Of all three, only Chicago is missing a core player, Lonzo Ball, who has been out all year. Barnes suffered a left wrist injury Sunday night, with X-rays negative. The Raptors said they would further evaluate the injury before their next game, against Indiana on Wednesday.

(Top photo of Raptors’ Fred VanVleet and the Bulls’ Alex Caruso: John E. Sokolowski / USA Today)