By David Aldridge, Eric Nehm and Josh Robbins
Editor’s note: This story was published hours before The Athletic reported that Blazers guard Damian Lillard was traded to the Milwaukee Bucks.
Although the Miami Heat are the defending Eastern Conference champions, it’s important to note they finished the regular season in seventh place in the East standings, only three games ahead of the Atlanta Hawks.
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After an offseason when the Heat’s roster arguably took a step backward, can the Hawks, Charlotte Hornets or Orlando Magic unseat them? Is there any way the Washington Wizards, a team that’s starting a retool, can surprise?
To break down the division’s offseason and look ahead to the 2023-24 regular season, The Athletic has assembled three of its writers, David Aldridge, Eric Nehm and Josh Robbins, for a roundtable discussion.
OTHER DIVISION PREVIEWS: Atlantic | Central | Southwest | Northwest| Pacific
What was the best offseason move — a trade, a free-agent signing, firing or hiring — within the Southeast?
David Aldridge: Obviously, if the Heat pull off a trade with Portland for Damian Lillard, we’ll have a new leader in the clubhouse. For now, I’ll go with the Wizards cleaning house and overhauling their front office. Washington has been spinning its wheels. Other than the brief years when Gilbert Arenas and John Wall were healthy and at their best, the Wizards have been utterly irrelevant for almost a generation, in a league where almost everyone has a real, multi-season run. Just hitting reset was a huge step forward for Ted Leonsis, and bringing in some very bright minds in Michael Winger and Will Dawkins to run the show with no handcuffs can, finally, give fans in a great basketball town some reason to hope for something sustainable down the road.
Read more: NBA offseason grades: Rating each teams moves (and non-moves) in 2023
Eric Nehm: A Lillard trade for the Heat would obviously change how anyone feels about the best offseason move within this division, but barring that potential trade, it was hard to pick out a big-time move. Most of the division’s teams either lost notable players or tried to run back much of what they were doing last season. I know it was a little controversial because it is a whole lot of money, but I will go with the Hornets locking up LaMelo Ball to a five-year max extension worth up to $260 million. The Hornets didn’t overthink it. They didn’t hesitate. They just signed their young star to the deal they needed to sign. If they are going to have a chance to turn things around over the next few years, they need Ball to know they’re fully committed to him as the leader of their franchise and show faith in their 22-year-old point guard.
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Josh Robbins: David and I agree: The division’s most significant move was Leonsis overhauling the top of the Wizards’ front office, hiring Winger, who in turn hired Dawkins.
But since my last name puts me last in the alphabetical pecking order, I’m going to offer an alternative: Bradley Beal’s flex, using his no-trade clause to force his way to the Phoenix Suns, where he joined Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Beal’s no-trade clause evaporated any leverage Washington might have mustered in the trade market, and Beal went to a franchise that didn’t give up much to obtain him. Of course, it was long past time for the Wizards to move on from Beal, but Beal still has his maximum contract and now finds himself on a contender.
Which of the offseason moves within the division has the strongest potential to backfire?
Aldridge: I do wonder about Orlando going for Anthony Black at No. 6 in the draft. Not because of his talent, which is substantial, especially as a defender and passer. And, by all accounts, he’s a solid guy. But the Magic have so many point guards. There’s Cole Anthony, and Jalen Suggs, and Markelle Fultz, and now, Black. And none of them is enough of a perimeter threat that you can move him with any confidence off the ball for long stretches. The Magic tried it with Suggs down the stretch last season; maybe that’s Orlando’s solution to the logjam. But I don’t think the Magic picked Suggs in the lottery because of his shooting; they did so for his leadership and decision-making on the ball. Fultz can score off the bounce, but again, he needs the ball in his hands. That’s a lot of mouths to feed.
Plus, Paolo Banchero has to touch the rock a lot going forward too, and he needs the floor properly spaced if he’s going to do his best work at the elbows or off the bounce. Orlando was bad at 3-point attempts (27th), makes (25th) and percentage (24th) last year. I don’t see how the Magic have made themselves significantly better in those categories this offseason. On the other hand, Orlando had a top-10 defense post-All-Star break; maybe the Magic are looking to buck the NBA trend of living and dying by the 3 and are leaning into Black’s D off the rip.
Nehm: I spent most of last season trying to figure out if there was going to be a contender lucky enough to trade for John Collins. I think he is incredibly talented and got lost in the shuffle in Atlanta. He was not traded until this offseason, but I am still a believer in Collins’ talent, and I think the Hawks may regret trading him. I understand the Hawks have a ton of talented young players and needed to figure out the logjam of playing time for those players. Removing Collins helps in that regard, but I find myself wondering if they picked the right player to jettison. Last season was the worst 3-point shooting season of Collins’ career (29.2 percent), but the six-year NBA veteran has shown the ability to shoot it at a 40 percent clip, and his athleticism can really pop. This is a big season for the Hawks as they need to prove this version of the team is actually going to work.
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Robbins: I understand the Heat’s rationale for their relative inaction this offseason: The goal is to trade for Lillard. But if the trade doesn’t occur, the Heat haven’t improved their roster enough to solidify their hold on the Eastern Conference. In fact, I’d argue their meager additions don’t make up for the departures of Max Strus and Gabe Vincent. In the meantime, Miami’s core is only getting older.
Which Southeast player is most likely to have a breakout season?
Aldridge: I’ll say Miles Bridges in Charlotte. He’s returning after missing all of last season, following an indictment on a domestic violence charge in the summer of 2022; he hadn’t signed a new deal with the Hornets when he was arrested. As a restricted free agent, no one else wound up signing him either.
Bridges was on the cusp of stardom before serving what was a de facto season-long suspension, coming off a 20-point, 7-rebound campaign in 2021-22. As he’ll certainly be looking to recoup the lost money from not playing last season, along with first-round pick Brandon Miller demanding opponents’ defensive attention, and with a healthy Ball again tossing dimes, Bridges could put up big numbers.
Nehm: He’s been so good in his first two seasons that this feels like cheating, but I’m going with Franz Wagner. He’s been slowly making his way toward it, but after a strong showing with Germany in the 2023 FIBA World Cup, I think Wagner ends up being a 20-point-per-game scorer this season. The Magic are going to bump up his usage even more, and he is going to be firing over five 3-point attempts per game. If he continues to grow as a shooter and playmaker, he could average more than 20 points and four assists per game, which would hopefully catch the attention of most around the NBA, even if the Magic still struggle as a team.
Robbins: My vote goes to Fultz, who is on schedule to become an unrestricted free agent in July. Is Orlando’s backcourt crowded? Yes. But I think Fultz will have the best season of his pro career and help Orlando approach the .500 mark.
Heading into the season, which player, coach or executive in the division has the most to prove?
Aldridge: Trae Young. His scoring skill is undeniable, and while he pounds the ball, he was second in the league (10.2) in assists last season — and rated highly in some advanced passing stats out there too, like potential assists per 75 possessions, from The NBA Underground. Yet the Hawks have gone through multiple coaches and a pretty good GM in Travis Schlenk in the last three years and gone from the East finals in ’21 to a barely-in postseason berth and first-round knockout last year. Now that’s not all on Young, to be sure. Atlanta has demanding ownership, and that makes for internal organizational churn. But Young is the Hawks’ franchise player, and the franchise has been trending in the wrong direction. Young has to be part of putting things back on course.
Nehm: It feels likely the players on whatever version of the Heat shows up this season are going to have something to prove, but we’ll let them be for the moment. With what we know right now, I’ll take Jordan Poole. As a 22-year-old, Poole shined during certain moments on the game’s biggest stage as he helped the Warriors win another championship. As a 23-year-old, he spent a season embroiled in controversy following the punch heard ’round the world. Now, at 24, Poole gets a chance to prove himself on a new team with a relatively clean slate. There will still be people who wonder if he is worth the contract extension he signed following the Warriors’ championship win, but he is going to get the opportunity to prove it night after night in an elevated role with the Wizards. Will he be able to figure out a healthy shot diet? Can he lead teammates? Can he get other players involved? This is a big season for Poole to establish himself in the NBA without the Warriors.
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Robbins: Charlotte’s decision to draft Miller second instead of Scoot Henderson is ripe for second-guessing, even though Charlotte, with Ball already in tow, had a bigger positional need on the wing than at point guard. Miller will always be linked to Henderson, and because of that, Miller and the person who drafted him, GM Mitch Kupchak, face an uncommon level of pressure to prove Miller was the better choice.
Which team will win the regular-season Southeast title, and which team will be the runner-up? Why will the division shake out that way?
Aldridge: Miami. Even though the Heat lost Strus and Vincent, they’ll get Tyler Herro back for a full run — unless, of course, he’s dealt for Dame — along with Kevin Love. And we all know the Heat will turn another one or more of their G Leaguers, two-ways and/or undrafted camp invitees into key rotation guys by season’s end. (Or, maybe it’ll just be their first-rounder, Jaime Jaquez Jr.) Nobody does development like Erik Spoelstra and company. I’ll take a rejuvenated Atlanta squad to finish second; though I think the Hawks will miss Collins more than they seem to think, a full camp and season of Quin Snyder on the bench should make them more efficient offensively and more connected on D.
Nehm: Miami. The Heat have won the division in three of the last four years and taken home the division crown more than any other team (12 times). No matter which players are on their roster to start the season, they should have enough talent to win it again. I saw firsthand just how special Jimmy Butler can be when he destroyed the Bucks in the Heat’s first-round upset last season, and pairing him with Spoelstra makes the Heat the favorites. And while I think the Magic and Hornets will both increase their win totals, I’m not ready to go all-in and say either team will be able to climb up to second place. I’ll just stay safe and go with D.A. and take the Hawks to finish second.
Robbins: Even if the Heat meander through the regular season like they did last year, I don’t see any of their division rivals overtaking them as long as Butler and Bam Adebayo stay relatively healthy. The Hawks have just enough firepower to hold off the Magic and the Hornets.
(Top photo of Jimmy Butler, Trae Young and Dejounte Murray: Sam Navarro / USA Today)
