It’s been a long time — probably back to Damian Lillard’s rookie season in 2013 — since there have been such low expectations entering a Portland Trail Blazers’ season.
Oddsmakers have the 2022-23 Blazers finishing with a losing record, which is looking like a good bet after the Trail Blazers’ starters spent the preseason getting blown out by four NBA opponents.
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As an explanation for their poor preseason, Blazers coach Chauncey Billups and the players have said they were trying out different concepts and lineup combinations. Also, they say they need time to learn each other, and time to become connected. Never mind that two of their blowout losses — Utah and Sacramento — came against teams with new head coaches and revamped rosters. And that another loss — to Golden State — was levied by a Warriors’ second unit that played against four of the Blazers’ starters.
Yet, there was Portland on the eve of Wednesday’s season opener at Sacramento, trumpeting optimism and intrigue about a roster that will have three new starters from last year’s opening-night lineup.
Billups says he will play a nine- or 10-man rotation depending on the matchups, and on Wednesday, he will send out starters Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons, Josh Hart, Jerami Grant and Jusuf Nurkić. Off the bench, he is expected to use Justise Winslow, Nassir Little, Keon Johnson and perhaps rookie Shaedon Sharpe while Gary Payton II recovers from offseason abdominal surgery.
So how can the Blazers avoid another trip to the NBA lottery next summer? It will have to be a 3-D season, in that their defense, Dame and development all need to pop.
A look at those three essentials as the opener with the Kings looms:
Defense
It’s no secret the Blazers have been one of the worst defensive teams for the past three seasons. They ranked 29th (second to last) in defensive rating after finishing 29th and 27th the previous seasons.
On Tuesday, Billups said defense has been a daily topic in his practice and meetings, but apparently the frequency of dialogue hasn’t been enough. The Blazers gave up 102, 118, 126 and 131 points in the preseason and allowed opponents to shoot 47 percent from the field and 43 percent from 3.
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Lillard admitted the team struggled defensively in the preseason, but said he thinks “we will have a really, really solid year defensively.”
The reason for his optimism? Lillard says there has been more focus on defense and an attempt to put substance behind their actions. In other words, instead of just running around, they are trying to better understand why and where they are running.
“We’ve taken the emphasis off just only playing hard and flying around and doing things with energy and having more of an understanding,” Lillard said. “There’s a lot more dialogue, so that as a team, we understand what is expected. How we should be doing what we are doing. Why we are doing what we are doing … and guys are understanding that better.”
Billups says he has narrowed the defense to three coverages, and his hope is that a roster that he says is quiet by nature begins to communicate better with each other on the defensive end.
“(Defense) is part of everything we talk about, and I think we will be better defensively because of it,” Billups said. “But are we going to be a top-five defense in the league? No. No. It just doesn’t happen that way. But I think we will be much better. We talk about it pretty much every day.”
The Blazers have three noted defenders: Grant, Winslow and Payton, and two decent-to-good defenders in Nurkić and Josh Hart.
“With Jerami, what he is able to do defensively, we have to use him as a focal point,” Nurkić said.
The key to any great defensive team is how well they cover as a team — helping and rotating as one — and so far we haven’t seen anything close to that type of cohesion.
Dame
This might be the most anticipated Lillard season since his sophomore season, or perhaps 2016 when he took over the reins as leader from the departed LaMarcus Aldridge.
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Lillard hasn’t played since December of 2021, when he opted to have abdominal surgery, and the time away seemed to heal more than his core. He has talked about the benefits of having a break from the mental strain, and now the combination of a sound mind and body point to another dominant offensive season.
On Tuesday, I asked Lillard how he can tell he is ready to return as an elite player, and his answer has to send shivers through every point guard defender around the NBA.
“I can get to where I want to get to, whenever I want to get there,” Lillard said. “And I don’t feel any stress when I’m playing, like, I’m not thinking about my body when I’m playing. That’s been the biggest stress for me over the last 4 1/2 seasons. I would wake up every day and I’m thinking about how is my body going to feel? How is this going to react? I don’t really feel good, how am I going to find it?
“Now, I haven’t missed a practice, I’m just out there playing free,” Lillard said. “I’m not thinking about what my body feels like. You guys wouldn’t understand it because you haven’t had to be in my body and how it’s felt, but me feeling that and understanding that is a major factor.”
I also asked him if he felt any extra motivation, or need to remind people that he was an elite player after missing most of last season. Lillard said he has nothing to prove.
“I’m prepared to be the best version of myself,” he said. “And people will see. That’s the bottom line: people will see. I’m not coming out with some big revenge on my heart and on my mind. My mind and my heart is free, and I know that I’m coming into it clear and ready to do what I got to do. And we are going to see about that.”
Development
The intrigue around this team is the unknown. Can Simons thrive alongside Lillard? Can Grant be an impact player on a good team? What will is the identity of the bench? And is there a breakout player among Simons, Grant, Hart or one of the youngsters like Keon Johnson or Sharpe?
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It’s why Lillard has been so unsure this preseason in how to gauge this team.
“We definitely have the makeup to be a really good team,” Lillard said. “There’s a lot of versatility on the wing. We shoot the ball well. We have good depth. Experience, mixed with youth — really talented youth. Athleticism … that’s why I’m so optimistic, but you just don’t know.”
If one of the Blazers’ core pieces emerges, or has an impact season, it could shift the expectations of this season. Lillard said that emergence could come from any one of the players on the roster.
“When Nurk plays well, we play well.” Lillard said. “Jerami brings a different element to our team, where if he is playing really well, that could change our team. And it’s (Simons’) first time going start to finish, where it really counts and we have to see … can Ant do it? … It could be a lot of guys.”
Last year’s bellyflop was eased by the emergence of Little and the blossoming of Simons. If the Blazers can get another season of major development out of one of their rotation players, and the defense and Dame are up to par, who knows, this team could be better than many are expecting.
The answers will begin to take shape Wednesday night.
(Photo of Damian Lillard: Rocky Widner / NBAE via Getty Images)