Editor’s note: This story has been updated to reflect news of the reported trades and additional intel gathered leading into draft night. The Athletic has live coverage of NBA Draft 2023.
We have officially hit the silly part of the NBA Draft process, with rumors flying and smoke screens being thrown around in every single call.
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There is no drama at No. 1, where Victor Wembanyama will be selected first by the San Antonio Spurs. But real questions start at No. 2, where it remains hard to nail down what the Charlotte Hornets are thinking. The Trail Blazers at No. 3 also present some real questions, as Portland looks to weigh its future and its present with a relatively new front office and Damian Lillard. The Houston Rockets at No. 4 have a strong scouting department but also want to shift more into win-now territory. And at No. 5, the Detroit Pistons are armed with their two creators of the future — Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey — but still need a wing player and defensive help.
Additionally, it’s worth noting two factors leading to this draft being remarkably difficult to project right now. First, I have never experienced as much smoke-screening in the NBA Draft as I have heard this year. Typically, a number of lies told, or rumors spread like wildfire and become widely accepted. But this year has been all over the map. Second, a number of picks seem to be truly available for acquisition. In large part, it has to do with the number of teams that have multiple picks. The Pacers, Jazz and Hornets alone hold nearly one-quarter of the picks in this draft. There are 10 teams that hold over half of the selections in the draft following star trades over the last couple of years that have consolidated pick capital. There will be quite a bit of movement, which has led to confusion even for executives and agents on draft ranges for certain players.
This is a fascinating draft loaded with depth and interesting players. In terms of tiers, my 2023 NBA Draft Guide has breaks after the first, second, fifth, ninth and 16th players. The consensus league-wide — certainly not every team but trying to synthesize a big-picture view of where sources are — sees some separation after the first pick, third pick, fifth pick, ninth pick and around No. 20.
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Here’s a dive into the 2023 NBA Draft with projected picks at all 58 selections. Ages listed are as of draft day. Heights listed are without shoes as measured at the NBA Draft Combine or G League camp.
Victor Wembanyama | 7-4 center | 19 years old | Metropolitans 92
The Scout: The best draft prospect to enter the NBA since LeBron James. It’s that simple. Wembanyama is the epitome of a franchise changer. As a teenager, he is leading the French League in rebounds and blocks and is second in points. It’s hard to overemphasize how amazing Wembanyama’s long-term potential is on both ends of the floor. He will immediately be the biggest, longest player in the NBA, which allows him to change the geometry of the court defensively. He has great instincts and recovery ability on that side of the ball. He’s doubling everybody else in the French League in blocks per game. But he also is a legitimate shot creator at center who can score off the bounce with creativity and hit shots with ease off of pull-ups or drives to the rim. He’s a terrific finisher inside because of his length and touch and is already starting to experiment with shots that could make him special, such as turnaround pull-ups, fake-spin shimmies and floater 3s. He is a historic prospect, one well within the tapestry of past elite center prospects such as Bill Walton, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing, Ralph Sampson, Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan and Anthony Davis.
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The Fit: Wembanyama fits every single team. He is the fit. He’s the player you build around. San Antonio has found some strong players in the latter half of the lottery and the back portion of the first round, but the Spurs don’t have a star yet. Wembanyama slides everyone down a peg into more suitable roles. Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson can be young, high-level wings who don’t get the top defensive assignments. Wembanyama will be a tremendous fit next to Jeremy Sochan in the frontcourt with Sochan as an all-around gap-filler who was productive as a teenage rookie. He’ll be able to be brought along slowly as a scorer as he continues to rework his shot. The Spurs got to transition beautifully from the Robinson era into the Duncan era and now perfectly slide into the Wembanyama era.
The Range: No. 1.
2. Charlotte Hornets
Scoot Henderson | 6-2 guard | 19 years old | G League Ignite
The Scout: Henderson is an explosive playmaker who has been seen as the likely No. 2 overall pick behind Wembanyama all season. In many other drafts, Henderson would be the No. 1 pick. He’s going to be a difficult problem for defenses to solve from the first day he hits the NBA because of how well-rounded he is in ball-screen actions. He can pull up and hit floaters, he can get to the rim and finish with authority or touch, he can play slow or fast, and he can make high-level passing reads. On top of that, he’s going to force the action in transition and drive easy points that way, as well as be the guy from day one who sets the tone for your organization as the top dog on the team because of his competitiveness and drive.
The Fit: As I wrote in last week’s mock draft, the presentation of the very specific lean toward Miller throughout this process has been a bit strange to me. General manager Mitch Kupchak is known to heavily value the individual workout part of the pre-draft process, and the Hornets’ front office is known to be deliberate in their decision-making process league-wide. Additionally, Kupchak said yesterday at his pre-draft press conference that “probably until tomorrow, there won’t be a decision.” Genuinely, I think this is a toss up.
On top of that, they are in the middle of an ownership transition. Decisions this vital have many stakeholders from the top of the organization on down. We haven’t heard much about incoming owners Gabe Plotkin and Rich Schnall throughout this process, but it’s been hard for me to believe they wouldn’t be involved in a substantial capacity. Indeed, Kupchak acknowledged yesterday in his press conference after publication of this mock initially that “the new owners will be in the room,” before going on to say that he’ll make the pick. And that makes sense. They should be in the room and have a voice. They’re the ones who will have to live with this decision long term — even more so than Kupchak himself, given that ownership transitions can often come with eventual front-office changeovers (especially when the incumbent lead front-office executive is nearing 70 years old). This isn’t to say Kupchak is on his way out immediately or anything, and Jordan is maintaining a minority stake in the franchise. But all of the public posturing seems to be surrounding Jordan and Kupchak.
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Why would Plotkin and Schnall not be the primary stakeholders here? Undeniably, they’ll listen to the basketball lifers in the front office purely from an expertise perspective. Jordan’s opinion will hold weight, as it always does. But even if they aren’t the people making the decision, logically, their voices seem very important here too, and that seems to be the X-factor few people have accounted for. A number of factors make me believe the early Miller favoritism post-lottery was likely a bit overstated publicly. All of the intel I’ve gotten says the Hornets simply undertook a real process to come to a decision, and no choice has been made between Henderson and Miller until this week.
The team had both Miller and Henderson in for workouts, then had them return this week. My impression is that the uncertainty regarding their potential decision at No. 2 was legitimate, and they didn’t make Henderson fly back to Charlotte just to send out a smoke screen to the rest of the league. Kupchak also noted in his news conference Wednesday that he did not gain a significant amount from having Miller and Henderson in for a second round of visits, but that ownership got a chance to get a better feel for both players. I’m still not totally sold that this pick is absolutely Miller, despite the intel throughout the process seemingly leading to one direction. In Wednesday’s news conference, Kupchak answered a question fit versus talent.
“Several years ago, (fit) wasn’t a factor at all,” Kupchak said Wednesday. “You were always going to take the best player. I would say that is the case today, although we are closer to a point in time where we would consider fit. But we’re not that team that has been in the playoffs for three or four years and you’re looking to keep a roster and look for fit when we’re not at that place right now. So our decision is going to remain to mean that we’re going to look for the player who is going to have the best overall career.”
He also said, “We’re trying to get the player that we feel that, once you put the ball in their hand, that you’re going to get the best player.”
Everyone around the league acknowledges the Miller intel exists, and there does seem to be a feeling that Miller is favored to be picked. The oddsmakers have Miller as the favorite too. I get that. But based on everything in that news conference and how the tenor of the conversation from Kupchak seems to have changed from post-lottery to now, I’m riding with Henderson to start draft day. I might be wrong. I wouldn’t bet on this market either direction right now. But no one seems to be able to truly figure out where the Miller leaks are coming from, as the Hornets’ front office is believed to largely keep things in-house.
I do believe that, if there is a trade to be made regarding the No. 2 or No. 3 picks, the most likely player teams would be moving up to get would be Henderson. A number of teams have called about this selection, including New Orleans, as The Athletic’s Shams Charania and Will Guillory reported. At the very least, my impression is that Charlotte hasn’t completely shut down interest, but Kupchak acknowledged that it would require an enormous offer to pry the pick away.
The Range: No. 2 to No. 3
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The Scout: Miller was one of the best players in college basketball this past season. He averaged 19 points and nine rebounds and was even more dominant in SEC play. During conference play, he averaged 20 points while shooting 49 percent from the field and 38 percent from 3. Miller showcased just about everything teams look for in big-wing creators. He’s a terrific volume shooter, having made a high percentage from 3 on over seven attempts per game. He can handle the ball out of ball screens and string out mismatches, attack the basket and finish at the rim. Defensively, he’s a switchable player who isn’t quite an impact player on that end, but he’s solid and not going to get hunted. In high school, Miller also was seen as something of a midrange maestro with the ability to rise and knock down shots in the middle of the court. Around the league, Miller is seen as a potential top-two offensive option long term on a good NBA team.
The Fit: The biggest question with Portland is whether it keeps the pick. The Blazers will continue to evaluate all available options on the trade market. If something comes their way involving a younger star that not only allows them to pair somebody with Lillard but also potentially transition out of the Lillard era with that person and into the future, that seems like something the Blazers would consider. But it does not seem like Portland is set on moving the pick to get immediate help which also hinders its future either.
The Blazers seem to be comfortable with selecting a player at No. 3, and they seem comfortable with both Miller and Henderson, depending on who falls. Here, it’s still Miller, who is a strong fit with Jerami Grant.
The Range: No. 2 to 3
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Amen Thompson | 6-6 guard | 20 years old | Overtime Elite
The Scout: The first of the Thompson twins to go, Amen is the point guard of the duo. He’s an electric athlete in space and transition, has a great first step, is an elite leaper, has tremendous hang time and body control in the air. He attacks the basket aggressively. But he also is a very high-level passer and playmaker who can find his teammates from all sorts of angles and positions. Defensively, Thompson has some real mechanical issues to clean up, but his length and athleticism give him all sorts of upside, and he already makes consistent plays on that end. He needs more experience making reads in half-court settings — he didn’t get a chance at a lot of that with Overtime Elite, compared to other prospects. But his upside is enormous because of the pressure he puts on defenses.
The Fit: This is where the draft starts to get fun. Cam Whitmore is in play at No. 4. But I think the more likely pick is Thompson at this point. The Rockets had a number of players in for workouts last week beyond just that duo. The potential of James Harden joining the fold definitely throws this thing for a bit of a loop. But at the end of the day, the Rockets tend to be a front office that operates with a best player available mentality. They might not yet have the star that allows them to build a contender long-term, depending on how Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. develop in the future. Thompson’s upside is tremendous, and he fits incredibly well with Green if Harden doesn’t end up joining the Rockets.
The Range: No. 4 to No. 6
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5. Detroit Pistons
Ausar Thompson | 6-6 wing | 20 years old | Overtime Elite
The Scout: Thompson is an elite athlete who impacts the game in many ways. He’s a strong defender who flies around in help as a good rim protector and playmaker in passing lanes. He’s a strong, technical on-ball defender. Offensively, he can get out on the break and score, and in the half court, he’s a sharp cutter and driver of the basketball. His passing is maybe my favorite skill, especially as a secondary ballhandler. As a finisher, Thompson has a terrific package of touch finishes and layups in addition to above-the-rim athleticism. The guy Thompson reminds me of most is Andre Iguodala, even down to the shooting questions that Thompson will have to work through early in his career. My bet is Thompson is an impact player because of how well-rounded his game is.
The Fit: The Pistons are one of the teams that have sent out a number of smoke screens this cycle, and made it difficult to get a read on exactly where they stand heading into the event. I do believe that a trade down is a real potential outcome here. But general manager Troy Weaver was clear in his pre-draft press conference Tuesday that the Pistons are hunting for upside. And at the very least, Thompson does provide a real look at that. He’s an elite athlete with a high basketball IQ at 6-foot-6 with a 7-foot wingspan.
I also think Whitmore is still in the mix here. A high-upside wing with immense athleticism, the connections between Whitmore and the Pistons’ front office are real. Whitmore played for Team Melo on the AAU circuit, Carmelo Anthony’s AAU team located in the DMV area. Anthony was recruited to Syracuse by Weaver, then an assistant with the Orange who has long-standing ties to the DMV. Sources also pinpoint Jarace Walker as an option here, which is unsurprising given his DMV ties as well. The Athletic’s James Edwards has also noted that Taylor Hendricks had a very strong workout here and could be an option in a potential trade-down scenario.
The Range: No. 5 to No. 9
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Anthony Black | 6-6 guard | 19 years old | Arkansas
The Scout: Black is maybe the smartest player in this draft class in terms of basketball IQ. He consistently makes the right play. Black averaged 13 points, five rebounds and four assists while shooting 45 percent from the field and is reliable as a bigger point guard. He’s also a terrific defensive player and one of the best in the class at the point of attack while also being switchable because of his size and strength. Black will make good decisions and will attack at both ends of the court.
The Fit: Black has quickly become one of the hottest players on the board heading into draft night, as both the Jazz and Wizards are thought to be big fans. It wouldn’t be a stunner if the two engaged in a bit of a battle to try to move up the board to get him. The Magic are also thought to be fans on some level, but keep in mind that the Magic are also the team that orchestrated a quite surprising pick last season of Paolo Banchero at No. 1 after it was assumed Jabari Smith Jr. would be the pick throughout much the process. Assuming anything about what their board looks like seems like a fool’s errand beyond the general structure of them likely considering most of the players in this range.
The Range: No. 4 to No. 9
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Jarace Walker | 6-7 forward | 19 years old | Houston
The Scout: Walker is a well-rounded forward/big prospect. He’s 6-7 without shoes with a 7-3 wingspan. He’s a terrific passer and playmaker, particularly as a short-roll weapon out of ball screens. Walker improved a bit as a shooter this past season, making 34.7 percent from 3, albeit on limited volume. But where he makes his mark is on defense. Walker is a tremendous, instinctive defensive player whose reactivity and basketball IQ make him an impactful help defender flying all across the court. He’s switchable as a man-to-man defender who can manage all but the quickest guards (and that includes sliding up onto centers because of his shredded 240-pound frame). There are some questions about how he’ll score effectively in the NBA if his jumper doesn’t come along, so he could be more of a rotation player if improvement doesn’t happen. But Walker will help you win.
The Fit: The Pacers have a real need for defensive players. They were 26th in defensive rating this season despite getting nearly 2,000 minutes from an elite defensive center in Myles Turner. They need guys who can play strong help defense as well as provide switchable, aggressive on-ball defense. The team is also thought to be looking for a player that can play the four. Walker ticks a lot of boxes there defensively, and his best position will likely be at the four. This type of offensive scheme, as well, figures to accentuate his best gifts. With Myles Turner able to space the floor, Walker could act as an awesome screener option with Tyrese Haliburton who could short roll into good areas and relieve pressure when teams put two on the ball.
The Range: No. 5 to No. 9
8. Washington Wizards
Cam Whitmore | 6-6 wing | 18 years old | Villanova
The Scout: Whitmore has a ridiculous upside because he has an elite blend of explosiveness and strength. Coming in at about 230 pounds, Whitmore is an amazing leaper with a 40-inch vertical jump. He rises through contact powerfully and throws down around the basket. But there’s more than that. He is a shot creator who can knock down pull-up jumpers from behind the 3-point line. He has a good first step when attacking the basket. Defensively, he’s a very good on-ball defender with real switchability because of his strength and quickness. The main concern here is his overall feel as an offensive player. Whitmore had a historically low assist rate and consistently missed passing reads at Villanova. That’s where he needs to improve. But his ceiling is immense.
The Fit: The Wizards are seen as one of the true wild cards on draft night due to their new front office. Michael Winger, the new president of Monumental Basketball, is renowned as sharp league-wide and has worked for Sam Presti and Lawrence Frank, both of whom are very well-respected. New general manager Will Dawkins is extremely highly respected in scouting circles as a grinder who was heavily involved in the scouting process in Oklahoma City for over a decade. Additionally, how much of a role will new VP of player personnel Travis Schlenk have on draft night? He is known to be a tremendous evaluator as well. A lot of variables here make the Wizards very difficult to project.
Whitmore is going to have a wide range on draft night. At No. 8, he’d make sense for the Wizards as a pure upside swing for a new front office that should be taking as many fliers as possible.
The Range: No. 5 to No. 11
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9. Utah Jazz
Taylor Hendricks | 6-8 forward | 19 years old | UCF
The Scout: Hendricks is the biggest riser of this draft class. He’s over 6-9 in shoes and has a 7-1 wingspan. He’s an elite defensive player and has real athleticism. He slides his feet incredibly well as an on-ball defender and has switchability. Off the ball, he’s very impactful as a weakside rim protector who can fly over in help situations and block shots. And offensively, Hendricks was very valuable. He averaged 15.1 points and seven rebounds while shooting 39.4 percent from the field on real volume. Hendricks needs to improve as an offensive playmaker and ballhandler. But it’s easy to imagine Hendricks stepping into the NBA early and playing relatively early as a useful 3-and-D player while he continues to round out his game.
The Fit: The Jazz get to reshape their roster now following the Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell deals. Danny Ainge rebuilt the Celtics roster with a lot of size on the wing and the perimeter (think Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Grant Williams and others). Another word that comes up in conversations about what the Jazz are looking for on draft night is competitiveness. They seem to be placing a premium on players who get after it every night. My bet is they look for bigger wings and guards with that kind of mindset, especially with where the NBA is going. Hendricks would be an awesome fit with Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler, especially given that Will Hardy showed a willingness to play with bigger guys at the three. Hendricks’ range likely starts at No. 6, although as referenced above, Hendricks had a strong workout in Detroit and could be a trade-down target for the Pistons. It would be surprising to see him get beyond No. 10 with Dallas.
Having said that, the Jazz are well-positioned to be the most active team in trades on draft night. They have the capital with all of their treasure trove of picks moving forward to move in multiple directions. They could use this pick and No. 16 to try to slide up the board. They could use No. 16 and some of their future capital to acquire a second lottery pick. They have salary-cap space to take on bad contracts. I think I would be surprised if they just stayed with the status quo at Nos. 9 and 16. There are too many logical ways for them to add draft capital in this class that also can meet the needs of other teams.
The Range: No. 5 to No. 9
10. Dallas Mavericks
Bilal Coulibaly | 6-6 wing | 18 years old | Metropolitans 92
The Scout: Coulibaly is one of the most interesting mixes of immense upside and raw, unrefined polish to enter the NBA Draft in a long time. So many pieces of Coulibaly’s game make you want to buy in. His athletic tools are incredible and are exactly what every team across the league is looking for. He plays hard and unselfishly. In open spaces, it’s clear that, if he can tighten up his handle, his downhill speed and potential are real. He is willing to understand his role and play with a high motor, doing whatever it takes to get on the floor and help the team. It’s not an exaggeration to say his physical gifts give him a genuine upside to becoming an All-Defense player. His jump shot is far from broken. But he also doesn’t do enough on the court right now either. He’s an incredibly low-volume offensive player. His handle is going to take some time to develop for it to be functional in the NBA. His jumper, while far from broken, is probably a multi-year project in terms of getting him confident enough from NBA range at the speed that will be necessary to get it off at volume. And even on defense, he’s still kind of a step slow when he’s away from the ball. NBA teams are fascinated with Coulibaly, and he’s seen as a likely bet for someone in the top 16.
The Fit: This is where it’s thought the draft will get truly unpredictable. Not many sources around the league currently believe this pick will stay put in Dallas. The Mavs seem to be exploring several different options, from trading down to trading out and acquiring a player who can help now. The goal for Dallas seems to be to add depth, and the Mavs have several different ways they can accomplish that goal from this spot. They also would not mind using this pick to get off some salary, but that’s not the primary motivator, per sources. But it takes two parties to tango. Until a deal is done, you never know. Agency sources around the league noted later in the pre-draft process that Dallas asked for workouts with players seen as more likely to go in the 20s and 30s even though the Mavs don’t have any picks after this one as of now.
I could slot any name here ranked in the No. 8 to No. 18 range given that I’m not sure Dallas will be making the pick. I’m currently going with Coulibaly, but it’s difficult to say who would be targeted if the pick is moved. I would say the three most likely candidates in this range that teams would think they have to trade up for are Coulibaly, Kobe Bufkin and Dereck Lively II, based on the heat surrounding them right now. Coulibaly, particularly, is seen as a candidate to be taken at every pick from No. 11 through No. 14, so any team that wants him will need to get to this spot. One final note: The San Antonio Spurs are thought to have real interest in Coulibaly, as Wembanyama and Coulibaly are close friends having played together this past season with Metropolitans 92. If there is a surprise team that tries to spike up the board into the top 10 that no one sees coming, the Spurs are a candidate.
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The Range: No. 9 to No. 16
11. Orlando Magic (via Chicago)
The Scout: Dick is maybe the best shooter in the class and drilled 40.3 percent of his six 3-point attempts per game as a freshman. The list of high-major true freshmen in the last 30 years, per Sports-Reference, to average 14 points and shoot 40 percent from 3 while taking at least 200 3s is limited. It’s Dick, Gary Trent, Kevin Durant, D’Angelo Russell, O.J. Mayo, Tajuan Porter and Jamal Murray. That’s a great list, given that it’s five NBA starters and Porter, who is 5 foot 7. Dick profiles as a long-term NBA starter with an upside. He has some on-ball defensive concerns, but he has great hands and is smart rotationally. He knows how to play.
The Fit: The Magic need shooting around Banchero and Wagner, especially if they’re going to continue with a backcourt core of Markelle Fultz and Jalen Suggs. I also gave the team Anthony Black earlier, meaning the need for shooting becomes even more important. The team finished in the bottom 10 in the NBA in 3-point rate, and the Magic shot just 34.6 percent this past season. Dick is an elite shooter.
Dick has a varied range on draft night. Some teams love his ability to nail shots, and others are a bit more questionable on the rest of his game. He’s not universally beloved. He’s more likely to hear his name called in the lottery than not, but some potential cascading effects could lead to him falling a few spots further than expected.
One other name that has recently come up a bit regarding the Magic is Lively. He ticks the length and positional size box well for Orlando. Coulibaly will also get a real look here for similar reasons.
The Range: No. 11 to 19
Kobe Bufkin | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Michigan
The Scout: Bufkin has risen through the pre-draft process. He’s one of my favorite prospects and the evidence is there. Over his last 12 games, he averaged 17 points per game in Big Ten play while shooting 52 percent from the field, 45 percent from 3 and 89 percent from the line. He also grabbed six rebounds, had three assists and about two steals. That’s the point in the year when he started to get more usage consistently. He averaged only 9.6 shots per game in Michigan’s first 18 games as the Wolverines used more Hunter Dickinson/Jett Howard sets. In those last 15, Bufkin took nearly 13 shots per game and got far more high-leverage opportunities. There just aren’t many holes in his game. He’s a great finisher and a good shooter from the midrange and 3. He makes high-level passes, is strong on the ball, can help defensively and is well-rounded.
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The Fit: Bufkin is seen as likely to hear his name called somewhere between No. 9 and No. 13, with a few options potentially available. The Thunder have done exceptionally well to throw smoke in multiple different directions this draft cycle, but the names that have most consistently come across my proverbial desk are Bufkin, Coulibaly and Lively. The Lively idea doesn’t totally fit for me because the team tends to like bigs who can dribble, pass and shoot. Bufkin on the other hand is just about a perfect fit as a complementary guard to play next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey due to his well-rounded game.
The Range: No. 9 to No. 16
The Scout: Hood-Schifino is a well-rounded, young prospect who won the Big Ten’s Rookie of the Year award this past season while averaging 13 points, four rebounds and four assists. He’s also a very strong on-ball defender with real size at nearly 6-6 in shoes. He’s shown great unselfishness and comfort in ball screens, with a penchant for knocking down midrange jumpers. However, he’s not a particularly adept shooter off the catch yet and will need some fine-tuning in that regard. If he can improve that and some decision-making questions, Hood-Schifino could get on the court a touch earlier than most one-and-dones. But the shooting needs to improve, as he made just 33.3 percent from 3.
The Fit: The Raptors have some questions in the backcourt. Gary Trent Jr. is opting in to his player option, but Fred VanVleet has said he’ll become a free agent. The team needs to find more depth, even if it envisions Scottie Barnes as a potential primary creator. Hood-Schifino can play a bit on and off the ball, and I think he’s the rare one-and-done who could play early because of how impactful he is as a defender. He would give the Raptors some further flexibility in terms of their offseason decision-making. More of the names I’ve heard involved with the Raptors reside in the backcourt than the frontcourt, although they don’t seem to be expressly looking for guards either.
The Range: No. 10 to 20
14. New Orleans Pelicans
Dereck Lively II | 7-1 center | 19 years old | Duke
The Scout: Lively struggled to start the season, but by the end of it, there was not a more impactful defender in college basketball. He’s an elite rim protector who averaged 2.5 blocks this past season in 20 minutes. He defends ball screens well and can do so in a variety of different schemes. He can hard hedge and recover, he can drop, and he can play at the level. He’s mobile and runs the court very well. Offensively, he’s extremely limited right now, but Lively has immense tools with a 7-7 wingspan that portends potential to not just be a good defender but a great one.
The Fit: Few players have had a stronger pre-draft process than Lively. He had a standout pro day in front of several evaluators in Los Angeles. I’ve seen him as a sure bet to go in the top 20 from the start of the pre-draft process, but it took time for others to come around on that. The Pelicans need a center of the future defensively if they’re going to build a contender around Zion Williamson, as Jonas Valančiūnas is a free agent in 2024. Lively showcased some potential to shoot throughout his prep career and at his pro day, so if the Pelicans believe they can get him with Fred Vinson and have him work some magic, Lively would be the ideal player to pair with Williamson long term.
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Shams Charania and Will Guillory reported last week that the Pelicans are seen as a threat to move up in the draft, potentially to target Scoot Henderson if they can get into the top three. I don’t see a way they can do that unless they are willing to move Williamson or Brandon Ingram, even with their immense number of picks.
The Range: No. 10 to 17
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The Scout: Wallace is one of those dudes you just trust to be a hooper. He gets how to play and impact winning. He’s an elite defensive guard with incredible hands and disruptive hand-eye coordination. He’s extremely strong and can slide up the lineup because of how capable he is at getting his chest in front of players and cutting off their momentum. Offensively, I’d like to see him create off the bounce, but he’s good enough in ball screens and is strong as a catch-and-shoot weapon. He suffered a few injuries this past season, so teams want to learn a bit more about those, but Wallace is a very trustworthy player.
The Fit: The Hawks took fewer 3s than anyone in the NBA this season on a per-shot basis and put very little pressure on the rim. Despite this, they were still a top-10 offense because Trae Young is that good of a creative force. Now, with Quin Snyder getting a full season, they need more shooters and diverse offensive threats. With Bogdan Bogdanović’s injury history (missing about 20 games per season) and Dejounte Murray’s contract running out at the end of next season, it might make sense for them to look toward the combo guard market in this draft class, which is diverse in terms of skill set. Wallace is a solid shooter, but more importantly is an elite defender who can play on and off the ball and will provide strong value in any backcourt combination. A few different sources have noted they would be surprised to see Wallace get beyond Atlanta here.
The Range: No. 8 to No. 15
16. Utah Jazz (via Minnesota)
The Scout: George is a bit polarizing for scouts. Some love his craft as a ballhandler and playmaker. He’s very creative off the bounce and can play at this rare cadence that is hard to stay in front of. However, he’s also not necessarily the best decision-maker yet and not a high-level athlete for a primary ballhandler. That led to some real inefficiency this past season. He shot just 37 percent from the field and turned it over three times per game despite playing for one of the best, most-well-spaced offenses in the country. Defensively, he has his positive moments, but they’re hit or miss. It’s hard to find creative guards who are this young and productive, though.
The Fit: The Jazz shouldn’t have a specific type. The goal should merely be to acquire the best talent. Here, I have George. Teams are all over the map on him following the pre-draft process. His range is quite wide. But the talent is definitely there. He’s a skilled shot creator for a team that certainly could use more gifted on-ball talent.
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The Jazz have certainly explored trading up with this pick, trying to use constructions involving both the No. 9 pick in order to climb the board in addition to using it separately to attempt to acquire a second lottery pick. There would seem to be a lot of synergy between Utah and Dallas if the Jazz would be willing to take on some long-term salary into their cap space in order to get an additional top-10 pick.
Speculatively, my ideal draft night for the Jazz would involve something like this: The Jazz use future draft capital to move up to No. 6 or 7 to secure the player they most want in that range. Then they use their cap space and No. 16 to try to move up the board, targeting Dallas’ No. 10 overall pick while also taking on a bad contract in the process. That would give them two top-10 picks and allow them to come away from this draft with something like Black or Ausar Thompson, and then also allow them to move up and someone like Coulibaly.
The Range: No. 15 to No. 28
Jordan Hawkins | 6-4 wing | 21 years old | Connecticut
The Scout: Hawkins has a case as arguably the best movement shooter in the class. UConn had him sprint off screening actions, using his pristine shooting mechanics and ability to stop on a dime to get open and can 3s. He averaged 16 points and was a critical piece of the national champion Huskies, keying their perimeter attack with how much teams had to respect his gravitational force. Hawkins also improved a bit off the bounce this past season, becoming an impactful, effective attacker of closeouts. He works defensively, but this is where his lack of strength comes in. Hawkins is extremely skinny and will need to put on some weight in the coming years. But he’s an elite shooter and those guys tend to work out.
The Fit: The key skill that works best with LeBron James offensively is shooting. Hawkins is going be a tremendous floor spacer, so his fit with the Lakers would be good. The Lakers also seem to be doing some due diligence on him. Also, don’t be stunned to see the Lakers look to trade down. The team only has four players guaranteed to be under contract for next season. Getting some cost-controlled depth would help them with their plans, and several teams, as we’ll discuss, are exploring consolidating some pick capital.
The Range: No. 12 to 25
The Scout: I’m betting Jaquez has a strong pre-draft workout circuit. He’ll impress in team meetings and will likely perform well when he goes into competitive settings because of his experience and skill level as well as his two-way prowess. Jaquez can create his shot, defends well and is the kind of player who will lift the energy and intensity of those around him. He’s a four-year player at UCLA and was an All-American this past season on the wing, helping to turn around a UCLA program under coach Mick Cronin when he took over in 2019 with his talent and leadership.
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The Fit: Jaquez is one of the true risers of the pre-draft process, having taken better advantage of the team workout setting than arguably anyone else. Sources have noted that Jaquez is taking no prisoners in almost every setting he’s been involved with and has been incredibly impressive. He received a green room invite and has truly risen to the point that he’s seen as likely to be taken somewhere in the top-23 picks. This is probably near the top end of his range, but the range is somewhat tight at this point given how many contenders are in this area of the draft. He fits everything about Heat culture to a T, and this would be a perfect meeting of player and team.
The Range: No. 15 to No. 23
Kris Murray | 6-8 wing | 22 years old | Iowa
The Scout: Murray isn’t quite his brother in terms of effectiveness. He’s not the shooter Keegan is and is not quite as athletic. But he’s a well-rounded wing who stepped into Keegan’s role at Iowa and averaged 20 points, eight rebounds and two assists per game. And across the league, teams continue to look for wings with real size and athleticism who can immediately step in and play. At 22 years old, Murray figures to provide genuine value within the first two years of his career as a rotation three/four with a starter’s upside.
The Fit: The Warriors have tended to draft younger in recent years. All of Moses Moody, Jonathan Kuminga, Patrick Baldwin Jr., James Wiseman, Nico Mannion, Alen Smailagić and Ryan Rollins were teenagers when they were picked, and Jordan Poole turned 20 one week before being picked. Typically, I tend to buy into the idea that the best indicator of future drafts is what front offices have done in the past. But the current thought circulating among sources is that the team may look to go a bit older and more experienced after not getting a ton of present-day value out of its selections in the last three years.
Guys like Murray, Jaquez and Hawkins are the names I’ve heard most. This is probably the top of Brandin Podziemski’s range too, and he is also seen as a possibility. Murray would give them more depth across the frontcourt as a big athlete who can shoot.
The Range: No. 15 to 24
20. Houston Rockets (via LA Clippers)
Noah Clowney | 6-10 forward | 18 years old | Alabama
The Scout: NBA personnel love guys who are big, young, defensively conscious and have the potential to shoot. Clowney ticks just about every single one of those boxes. He played this entire season at 18 years old and is 6-10 with about a 7-3 wingspan. He covers ground on the defensive end at a high level. He rebounds and took over four 3-point attempts per game this past season. Clowney did not make a ton of those 3s (28 percent), but the shot is clean and workable. I’m not quite as high on him as the rest of the NBA, as I worry a little bit about him guarding in space with how high his hips are and how he can cut off guards. But he has great help instincts, and as his body fills out, I wonder if he can keep improving his mobility overall. He’s a first-round talent, but he’ll take some time.
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The Fit: The Rockets got this pick in a smart trade with the LA Clippers that saw them move up 10 draft slots into the middle of the first round in exchange for Eric Gordon. That allowed them to enter a different tier of players who will be available. Under the Rafael Stone regime, they have tended to take the best player available. But we’re also in a part of the draft where there is a tier change, and the Rockets have a ton of players currently on rookie scale contracts. Sources around the league have noted that the Rockets have looked into trades involving this pick in all directions, from up to down to out entirely if the right situation comes about.
If they keep the pick, I would imagine it would be a best-player-available situation, but sources around the league have struggled to slot a player here. I truly don’t have a great sense for the Rockets here if they stay put. Clowney makes a lot of sense as a defensive-minded forward who has the potential to shoot and maybe long term could play in modern lineups with Jabari Smith Jr. given his length. He’d also be an ideal fit with Alperen Şengün if the shooting hits. Having said that, his range is seen as quite wide.
The Range: No. 15 to 35
Jett Howard | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | Michigan
The Scout: Howard is a tremendous shot maker, which allows him to be a genuine threat in NBA-caliber actions. Michigan ran a ton of Zoom and Pistol actions, using him in dribble handoffs. The Wolverines ran him off screening actions regularly trying to get him loose. He’s a teenager who averaged 14 points and hit 37 percent from 3 on high volume and also showcased the ability to relocate and score from the midrange. Here’s the issue: Michigan was about seven points per 100 possessions better when Howard was off the court because he was such a negative defender. He can’t move in space and also isn’t strong enough now to guard down the lineup. He has a ways to go on that end.
The Fit: I think the Nets are simply going with the players highest rated on their board. Howard is a tremendous shooter and floor spacer who would help a team that could use those skills from a big wing. He needs to improve on defense, but the Nets would have the insulation around him to defend while he works to improve with all of the wings they have around him. Olivier-Maxence Prosper is another name I’ve gotten here for Brooklyn.
The Range: No. 15 to 30
22. Brooklyn Nets
Brandin Podziemski | 6-4 wing | Santa Clara
The Scout: Podziemski is one of the cycle’s risers. He was a tremendous scorer this past season at Santa Clara, has a tremendous feel for the game and consistently makes sharp passing reads. The shooting is a critical skill, as Podziemski made 43.8 percent of his 3s this past season and is a knockdown shooter when left open. The big question is what he brings defensively, and I’m extremely skeptical. He plays hard and with a motor, plus he’s competitively wired. But he just doesn’t have the defensive tools necessary to succeed at the NBA level. Maybe he can make it work by crashing the glass — where he was an awesome college rebounder — and being in the right place at the right time, but I’m a touch lower on Podziemski than the consensus seems to be.
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The Fit: The other player whom sources have connected with the Nets is Podziemski. Even though I’m a bit lower on his evaluation, few players have helped themselves in the pre-draft process as much as he has. He deserves an immense amount of credit for how he has attacked it. He has been extremely impressive in team workouts. There are certainly evaluators who have questions about him on defense, but I’m definitely on the lower end here with him, and a number of executives are big fans. He’s on the board for a few teams in the teens in addition to most of the teams in the 20s.
The Range: No. 18 to 25
23. Portland Trail Blazers (via New York)
Leonard Miller | 6-9 forward | 19 years old | G League Ignite
The Scout: Miller is a 6-10 forward in shoes and is a terrific, fluid athlete with rare body mechanics that allow him to get defenders off balance as he handles the ball as a driver or in transition. He’s an elite finisher with incredible touch, having made 67 percent of his shots at the rim. In 14 games in February and March, Miller averaged 20 points, 13 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game with one steal and one block. He shot 55.6 percent from the field, 37 percent from 3 and 82 percent from the line. He figured out the G League quickly last season, his first season of high-level basketball. I think he has an upside.
The Fit: The Blazers adore these types of players and love to draft for upside. This is a front office, going back to when Joe Cronin was an assistant GM, that loves betting on youth. Their picks last year with Cronin in the top chair didn’t change that. Think Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, Jabari Walker, Greg Brown, Nassir Little and Zach Collins. All of these guys were teenagers when the Blazers took them. There are some hits and some misses, but the value has exceeded the draft slot for the most part. Miller would fit right into their tradition of taking younger players and giving them time and space to develop, regardless of what their impending decision is on Damian Lillard and if they continue to build around him.
The range on Miller is wide. He’s had workouts with teams with lottery picks and has seen teams picking later in the first. I expect he’ll go in the first round, but the floor is probably a bit beyond that if things really broke strangely with trades at the end of the first.
The Range: No. 12 to No. 35
Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 6-7 wing | 20 years old | Marquette
The Scout: I’m probably going to end up higher on Prosper than most evaluators just because I completely buy his tools and defense. Prosper is an awesome defensive player who profiles exceptionally well toward playing important minutes because of his switchability and potential to take on extremely difficult assignments. But it all comes down to shooting. If Prosper can consistently hit 35 percent-plus from 3, he’ll provide enough value to be a long-term NBA rotation player who helps teams win in high-leverage moments. He’s also been one of the players who has helped himself most in the pre-draft process.
The Fit: The Kings need players who profile as multi-positional defenders. De’Aaron Fox and Davion Mitchell were strong on defense this past season but are too small to guard up the lineup. Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk and Keegan Murray aren’t difference-makers on that end, and Harrison Barnes hits free agency this offseason. Prosper would be a nice developmental player to have in the system who could give them a real boost once he’s ready to play. The big key here is shooting. If they buy Prosper as a shooter, it’s a perfect fit.
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The Range: No. 15 to No. 24
Marcus Sasser | 6-1 guard | 22 years old | Houston
The Scout: Sasser has a real trio of skills that will give him a strong chance to stick in the NBA. He’s a terrific defender who should excel in a drop-coverage scheme. He’s a great ballhandler whose game could be opened to an even greater level by the increased space within driving lanes. And he’s a terrific shooter who should be able to space the floor for stars. On top of that, Sasser is tough in the way that you want to buy into when it comes to smaller guards in an NBA that is getting bigger across the perimeter. The goal for Sasser should be to become the next era’s Patrick Beverley. Make spot 3s, hit the occasional pull-up, continue to develop as a passer and be an elite defensive pest at the point of attack
The Fit: The Grizzlies are trading this pick to the Celtics as part of the Marcus Smart-Kristaps Porziņģis–Tyus Jones deal. The Celtics now have a real need at the lead guard spot, and Sasser is their kind of guy. He’s a tremendous shooter for a team that has truly valued surrounding Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum with such players. He’s a defensive pest at the point of attack for a team that is losing one in Smart. This is a superb fit and a superb player. Boston fans would love his intensity and desire.
The Range: No. 25 to 35
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26. Indiana Pacers (via Cleveland)
Nick Smith Jr. | 6-4 combo guard | 19 years old | Arkansas
The Scout: Smith was not particularly impressive at Arkansas this past season. But there is context behind that, as he dealt with a knee injury early in the season and was surrounded by a roster of non-shooters who stopped him from being able to attack the rim. Still, Smith shot just 37 percent from the field, 33 percent from 3 and was poor defensively and that resulted in him getting benched at times in the NCAA Tournament. Smith was a top-three recruit in the class last season and has real off-ball scoring creativity. His high school tape is quite strong. His range is a bit wide, but I’m willing to bet that last season is a bit more of an aberration than people think.
The Fit: This is where the draft essentially gets impossible to predict. The next few picks are all on the market. The Pacers have already sent pick No. 29 and No. 32 to Denver in a deal. They’ll continue to canvass the league to either consolidate and move up the board or move out for future assets. It wouldn’t surprise me to see someone move up for Smith, who falls fairly precipitously here. These combo guards have a very wide range in this class, including Smith and George.
The Range: No. 15 to 35
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27. Charlotte Hornets (via Denver)
Dariq Whitehead | 6-6 wing | 18 years old | Duke
The Scout: A bet on Whitehead is a bet on the shooting upside he showcased this past season — making 42 percent from 3 — as well as the upside he’d showcased at the high school level. His performance at Duke was not that of a first-round pick. He couldn’t pressure the rim and struggled defensively. But context is important. Whitehead suffered a fifth metatarsal foot injury in the summer, which extended into the preseason and kept him out of the team’s first three games in addition to missing valuable practice time. He had a follow-up surgery in June to repair the foot that did not heal properly the first time. This had an enormous impact on Whitehead’s season, as he looked to be nowhere near the athlete at Duke that he was in high school when he was undeniably one of the best players in his class. This is a very difficult situation to judge, and due to the medical factor, his range is quite wide.
The Fit: The Hornets have pick Nos. 27, 34, 39 and 41. They just don’t have the roster space to make all of them. With nine players on the roster for next season plus the restricted free agencies of P.J. Washington and Miles Bridges and many holes that could need filling from veteran free agents, the team might not have space for even three of them. Teams across the league are looking somewhat aggressively at these picks as a potential place to get into the draft.
Under the Michael Jordan regime, the Hornets tend to either draft guys who produced at an exceedingly high level in college (think Washington, Cody Martin, Cody Zeller, Kemba Walker) or who are young with high-level tools (think JT Thor, Bryce McGowens, Kai Jones, others). And over the last few years, they’ve tended to be willing to draft the latter more than the former, especially outside of the lottery. Whitehead is a tough one to slot, but it feels likely he will go somewhere in Round 1 at this point still. The Clippers are seen as a potentially soft landing spot for him. Don’t be stunned if they try to move up the board to get him if he falls a bit.
The Range: No. 15 to 35
28. Utah Jazz (via Philadelphia)
Ben Sheppard | 6-5 wing | 21 years old | Belmont
The Scout: Another riser throughout the pre-draft process, Sheppard is considered a solid bet to hear his name called in the first round because of his combination of shooting and feel for the game. Sheppard is intelligent and makes the right play to keep the offense flowing. He’s also a confident shooter and a player who held up extremely well defensively this season, earning Missouri Valley All-Defense honors. He could even go a touch higher than this on draft night.
The Scout: The Jazz haven’t been quite as aggressive as some of the teams above them in looking to move their third first-rounder if only because they do not have any second-rounders and are flexible enough with their roster that they can house three rookies. But they’re willing to take calls about consolidating pick value. Sheppard has risen throughout the process and is seen as a good bet to hear his name called in Round 1.
The Range: No. 20 to 35
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29. Denver Nuggets (via Boston)
Kobe Brown | 6-7 wing | 23 years old | Missouri
The Scout: Brown is one of the guys who really stood out to me in terms of skill the more I watched him. There’s so much more to his game than you’d think when watching a typical 6-foot-7, 250-pound big man. He’s an incredible processor of the game who makes quick decisions, and the shooting-mechanic adjustments he’s made over the last year have clearly worked wonders in terms of turning him into a real potential shooter in the NBA. He’s a smart defender who was active and valuable on that end in the SEC. And there is a real case for long-term upside if he can add a bit of quickness over the next few years. To me, it all comes down to the shooting. If Brown proves he can be a consistent shooter from distance, he might play in the NBA for the next eight to 10 years as a valuable rotation player.
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The Fit: As referenced throughout the process, the No. 29 pick had been available for a while to teams looking to get into the draft. Mostly, those teams have been contenders trying to get in to take advantage of the older, veteran players near the bottom of the first round and early in the second. Brown is one of those guys who should be able to play early due to the well-rounded nature of his game. He’s a big, physical 6-foot-7 bruising forward who can also handle the ball, pass and shoot it from distance. A few other names to look for at Denver’s picks: Connecticut’s Andre Jackson, Arkansas’ Jordan Walsh, Kansas’ Jalen Wilson, Penn State’s Seth Lundy and potentially even Penn State guard Jalen Pickett.
The Range: No. 25 to 40
30. LA Clippers (via Milwaukee)
Andre Jackson | 6-6 wing | 21 years old | Connecticut
The Scout: Jackson was one of my two favorite players last season because it’s clear he thinks the game at an exceptional level. His ability to play at high speed and process everything that’s happening around him is not normal. His movement without the ball is terrific. He’s an elite athlete with terrific, functional traits that will impact the game at an extremely high level because he also plays with a never-ending motor. He’ll defend across the positional spectrum and will provide terrific team defense. But in today’s NBA, you must be able to do something on offense to score. Otherwise, teams will leave you alone, and there will be poor impacts on your team. And yet, Connecticut still scored 124.3 points per 100 possessions when Jackson was on the court versus 114.3 when he was off it, per Pivot Analysis, because of the way he’s able to move without the ball, push tempo and make plays for his teammates. At the end of the day, I’m just willing to bet on Jackson. I think he and a smart coaching staff figure out how to use his elite basketball IQ and athleticism to their advantage.
The Fit: The Clippers tried to move this pick to the Wizards to help facilitate the Porziņģis trade to Boston. But that fell through. The Clippers love guys who are battlers, but they could move this pick in another trade. Again, the two names I’ve gotten most here are Whitehead and Jackson.
The Range: No. 20 to No. 40
Second Round
31. Detroit Pistons: Colby Jones | 6-5 wing | Xavier
32. Denver Nuggets (via IND): Jordan Walsh | 6-6 wing | Arkansas
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33. San Antonio Spurs (via Houston): Rayan Rupert | 6-6 wing | New Zealand Breakers
34. Charlotte Hornets: Brice Sensabaugh | 6-6 wing | Ohio State
35. Washington Wizards (via Portland): James Nnaji | 6-11 big | Barcelona
36. Orlando Magic: Max Lewis | 6-6 wing | Pepperdine
37. Denver Nuggets (via Washington): Colin Castleton | 6-11 center | Florida
38. Sacramento Kings (via Indiana): Jalen Wilson | 6-6 wing | Kansas
39. Charlotte Hornets (via Utah): Julian Phillips | 6-7 wing | Tennessee
40. Indiana Pacers (via Dallas): Trayce Jackson-Davis | 6-8 big | Indiana
41. Charlotte Hornets (via Oklahoma City): Gregory “G.G.” Jackson | 6-8 forward | South Carolina
42. Washington Wizards (via Chicago): Amari Bailey | 6-3 wing | UCLA
43. Portland Trail Blazers (via Atlanta): Sidy Cissoko | 6-7 wing | G League Ignite
44. San Antonio Spurs (via Toronto): Seth Lundy | 6-4 wing | Penn State
45. Memphis Grizzlies (via Minnesota): Jalen Pickett | 6-2 guard | Penn State
46. Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans): Chris Livingston | 6-6 wing | Kentucky
47. Los Angeles Lakers: Julian Strawther | 6-6 wing | Gonzaga
48. LA Clippers: Tristan Vukčević | 6-11 center | Partizan
49. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Golden State): Keyontae Johnson | 6-5 wing | Kansas State
50. Oklahoma City (via Miami): Adama Sanogo | 6-7 big | Connecticut
51. Brooklyn Nets: Mouhammed Gueye | 6-10 big | Washington State
52. Phoenix Suns: Jordan Miller | 6-5 wing | Miami (Fla.)
53. Minnesota Timberwolves (via New York): Jaylen Clark | 6-4 wing | UCLA
54. Sacramento Kings: Terquavion Smith | 6-3 guard | NC State
55. Indiana Pacers (via Cleveland): Omari Moore | 6-5 wing | San Jose State
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56. Memphis Grizzlies: Nadir Hifi | 6-2 guard | Le Portel
57. Washington Wizards (via Boston): Ricky Council IV | 6-5 wing | Arkansas
58. Milwaukee Bucks: Mojave King | 6-4 guard | G League Ignite
(Philadelphia and Chicago have forfeited picks due to free-agency tomfoolery and shenanigans)
Related reading
Draft Confidential: Guards | Forwards | Bigs
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(Top photo of Scoot Henderson: David Becker / NBAE via Getty Images)
