TAMPA, Fla. — Rookie quarterbacks, as you might imagine, have not always fared well against Tom Brady.
This isn’t surprising, as over the last 20 years, most any denomination of quarterbacks — young, old, mobile, Capricorn, you name it — haven’t had particular success against Brady’s teams. But as the Chargers come to town with rookie Justin Herbert, making just his third NFL start on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium and seeking his first career win, it’s of particular interest.
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Rookie quarterbacks have lost 10 straight games against Brady, eight of them by double digits, and in the last 16 tries, they’re 1-15 against the six-time Super Bowl champ. And yes, before you start writing an angry comment, those rookie quarterbacks were more accurately facing a stellar Patriots defense, but every time they weren’t on the field, they knew Brady soon would be.
“He’s got two games under his belt, and I think he has a lot of poise in the pocket,” Bucs defensive coordinator Todd Bowles said of Herbert, the No. 6 overall pick in this year’s draft out of Oregon. “He can make some great throws. He definitely doesn’t feel pressure around him, keeps his head down the field, he can run with the football, he makes great reads. I think he’s off to a great start.”
The Bucs coaching staff knows well the challenge of a rookie quarterback facing Brady. Bowles’ final game as head coach of the Jets, with rookie Sam Darnold under center, was a 38-3 loss. When head coach Bruce Arians won NFL Coach of the Year honors with the Colts in 2012, he had rookie Andrew Luck at quarterback and saw him throw three interceptions (still tied for most in his career) in a 59-24 loss to Brady’s Patriots.
“New England’s defense was so good, so complicated that you couldn’t worry about Tom Brady, just hope our defense played well enough that we could stay in the game and not turn it over,” Arians said. “It’s hard, but (Herbert) can’t worry about Tom Brady. He better worry about Lavonte (David) and Devin (White) and Shaq (Barrett) and JPP (Jason Pierre-Paul).”
Bucs offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich faced Brady as a Jaguars rookie in 2003 and threw two interceptions in a 27-13 loss to the Patriots, who were on the way to their second Super Bowl.
“I remember it being extremely cold,” said Leftwich, and it was 25 degrees for that December game. “As the quarterback, you’re really worried about the defense, about the guys you’re competing against. You never really get an opportunity to see the opposing team’s quarterback. You’re really more concerned about the defense and what they’re doing and how you’re trying to execute.”
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Coaches will always say that, but a young quarterback facing a star like Brady must navigate a minefield of potential problems, like trying to do too much to outduel the other quarterback or getting too confident in the days leading up to a game.
Luke McCown had to make his first NFL start against Brady in December 2004, in between back-to-back Super Bowl championships, and saw the Patriots return the opening kickoff for a touchdown before either quarterback took the field. Brady ended up throwing two touchdowns in an easy 42-15 win for New England.
“I tried not to be awestruck,” McCown said. “When I started against him, they had won (26 of their last 27) and so there’s obviously a lot of talk around Tom Brady, who had won two titles then as he was still building his greatness. Most of us as rookies, we feel pretty good about ourselves: Just wait until I play against Tom Brady, because I’m going to start my career the way he did. From Justin’s standpoint, he has to be confident in his ability and not get caught up in ‘Wow, that’s Tom Brady.’ Go out and play his game. There’s a reason the Chargers drafted him where they drafted him.”
In 2013, Bills quarterback E.J. Manuel was a first-round draft pick making his first career start against Brady and the Patriots, and he nearly pulled off the win. He threw for two touchdowns, had no turnovers and was leading with five minutes to play when he missed on a third down, giving Brady a chance. He drove down the field and the Patriots escaped with a 23-21 win on a field goal with nine seconds left.
“It was pretty crazy,” said Manuel, now an analyst with ACC Network. “The Bills hadn’t beaten the Patriots in years, so once I got to Buffalo, all the bad stuff that had happened before was thrown on my lap, so the pressure was definitely there. It was ‘Hey, we’ve got to beat the Patriots.’ In the NFL, there’s not a lot of coddling. Nobody’s going to hold your hand and walk you through that stuff. The biggest thing for a rookie quarterback is you can’t get so caught up in the fact that you’re playing Brady. But if you turn the ball over, if you’re not converting on third down, you’re giving Tom 10-12 opportunities with the football and he’s going to beat you.”
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McCown and Manuel both remember how much it meant to them that Brady came up after the game, treated them as a peer, knew who they were and called them by name, took a kind moment to say they had played well. To make one of your first starts against one of the game’s best quarterbacks is no easy task, but that small gesture made the loss a better experience in their memories.
That’s not to say rookie quarterbacks haven’t ever beaten Brady. In the last 20 years, it’s happened just five times in 32 tries. If you want a fun challenge, stop reading after this sentence and try to guess as many as you can — as clues, we’ll say that nobody has done it since 2013, and some of the answers are definitely more obvious than others.
The last time Brady lost to a rookie quarterback? That would be the Jets’ Geno Smith, who prevailed 30-27 in overtime in his second game against Brady in 2013. Smith threw for a touchdown and ran for another but mostly handed the ball off in overtime, got help from a 15-yard Patriots penalty on a missed field goal and escaped with an upset win.
Seattle’s Russell Wilson beat Brady in 2012, throwing for 293 yards and three touchdowns in arguably the best game by a rookie against Brady. When Colt McCoy beat Brady as a Browns rookie in 2010, he was greatly helped by Peyton Hillis rushing for 184 yards and two scores, and when Mark Sanchez won in 2009, it was more the Jets defense holding the Patriots to nine points.
Even when the Patriots went 14-2 and won a Super Bowl in the 2004 season, they lost to a rookie in Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger, in Arians’ first year as a Steelers assistant. Pittsburgh got two Roethlisberger touchdowns and a pick-six for a 21-3 lead early, and what Arians remembers most was the time of possession, with the Steelers holding the ball for nearly 43 minutes out of 60 to keep it out of Brady’s hands.
In those last 16 games against Brady, the rookie quarterbacks combined for just 11 touchdowns against 19 interceptions, while Brady has totaled 28 touchdowns with seven interceptions, so the feeling of having much to overcome is understandable.
Herbert nearly pulled off a huge upset in his first NFL start, nearly knocking off the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs and reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes before falling in overtime. He has completed 69.5 percent of his passes so far, with two touchdowns and two interceptions, and isn’t very different from the Giants’ Daniel Jones, who came into Tampa and beat the Bucs early last season.
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Brady barely played as a rookie, but he can remember being a first-year starter in 2001, and two of his first three career wins came against Peyton Manning, who had led the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns the previous season. Brady remembers not letting himself feel overwhelmed by the sudden platform of being an NFL starter and said Herbert has handled his first few two games well in close losses.
“It was a long time ago that I was in that situation, but it didn’t feel too big for me,” Brady said Thursday. “I played at a school where there was a lot of expectations, and we played in front of 100,000 people every week, so it was a big-time college program. … (This year is) a unique situation for all of us, and certainly for (Herbert) playing this year, but he’s done a great job in the time he’s been in there and we’re going to have to play good to beat this team.”
(Photo of Tom Brady and then-rookie Giants QB Daniel Jones: Adam Glanzman / Getty Images)
