ST. LOUIS — When the Cardinals revealed their projected starting outfield prior to spring training, they were, perhaps intentionally, also unveiling a three-player competition for the starting center-field job. Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar were expected to man the outfield, their positions at the time fluid, much like a good portion of the Cardinals’ active roster.
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Obviously, things changed. The emergence of top prospect Jordan Walker —and his stellar play throughout spring training — was simply too much for the Cardinals’ brass to ignore. The 20-year-old all but cemented himself as the starting right fielder, leaving O’Neill, Carlson and Nootbaar to duke it out for the remaining two spots. When it came to the center-field competition, all three were in contention. The Cardinals — known throughout baseball for their staunch defense — lacked an elite center fielder after they traded Harrison Bader to New York at last year’s deadline. In their quest to fill that role, they decided on O’Neill.
Even with an injury history, O’Neill had proven himself to be one of the top defensive outfielders in the league. He earned back-to-back Gold Gloves in left field in 2020 and 2021 but had come up through the Cardinals system as a center fielder after he was traded to St. Louis in 2017. Though it’s been six years, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak had always identified O’Neill as a potential star center fielder. That helped the organization side with O’Neill when he approached them before spring training and lobbied to play center field.
“A lot of us that got to see him play every day in center field, especially when he was down in (Triple-A) Memphis, we know what he’s capable of doing,” Mozeliak said to reporters Thursday afternoon at Busch Stadium. “He was an elite defender back then. We know what’s in there. Getting to see him play out there and do it the way he has is encouraging. He certainly has the athleticism and the skill to do it.”
It also helped that the idea of trying O’Neill out in center at the big-league level had been floating around in Mozeliak’s mind for quite some time. O’Neill was used in center field sporadically before the 2023 season, as Bader had locked up the position during his six-year tenure with St. Louis. But when Bader missed time with injury, Mozeliak often questioned why O’Neill wasn’t being used to fill in.
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“Here’s a guy with speed, arm strength, he’s aggressive. So when we thought about giving him the opportunity to (move to) center, to me, it was always like, ‘Why aren’t we doing this sooner?'” Mozeliak explained. “Thinking about the timeline, obviously prior we had (Harrison) Bader there, but when Bader would be injured, I would say, ‘Here’s a viable option.’ For some reason, we didn’t do it at the time, but I’m excited to see what he can do out there.”
All things considered, the fact the Cardinals have three viable center fielders is an asset to the overall depth and versatility of their roster. It also becomes quite handy when two of those three outfielders are sidelined with injuries. Lars Nootbaar (left thumb contusion) began a rehab assignment with Double-A Springfield on Thursday and could rejoin the Cardinals by Saturday. Dylan Carlson (neck tightness) is still considered day-to-day, though his condition improves daily and he likely will not need an injured-list stint.
Yet even when both Carlson and Nootbaar are cleared to resume action, St. Louis will still ride with O’Neill in center field for most games. Why? Though commonly-used metrics such as outs above average and arm strength identify Nootbaar and Carlson as the leading performers in center, O’Neill has perhaps the most valued trait in a center fielder: speed. O’Neill’s top speed, which ranks in the 97th percentile in the majors, makes him the outfielder with the highest ceiling en route to becoming an elite center fielder.
Let’s break down some of the available metrics, courtesy of Baseball Savant. In looking at the stats from the 2022 season (Nootbaar and Carlson have not played enough this season to factor into the site’s statistics for 2023), Nootbaar had the top overall arm strength (92.6), compared to Carlson (90.9) and O’Neill (87.4). However, in measuring outfield jump, O’Neill gained a significant advantage.
But before we explore the metrics here, let’s back up a moment. What exactly are teams looking at when they’re evaluating jump? Jump will help identify which players take the most direct routes and have the fastest reactions in the outfield based on the first three seconds after a pitch is released. To further evaluate this, jump is divided into three segments: reaction, burst and route. Reaction is how most teams will evaluate first-step quickness; it’s the number of feet covered (in any direction) in the first 1.5 seconds. Burst is how teams will measure acceleration. The difference between reaction and burst is that burst measures the second 1.5 seconds after a pitch is released. Route is relatively self-explanatory: it’s the comparison of feet covered in any direction to feet covered in the correct direction over the initial three seconds after a pitch is released.
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So, in what categories does O’Neill stand out when it comes to evaluating jump? In 2022, O’Neill and Carlson posted identical route measurements at 0.6, while Nootbaar fell behind at .2. Nootbaar had the best burst rate at 0.5, with O’Neill at 0.2 and Carlson at -0.6. Nootbaar also had the best reaction measurement of the three at -0.4, with O’Neill at -0.7 and Carlson at -0.9. On first glance, you can say each outfielder excels in a different area, therefore comparing the three could result in a wash, or with Nootbaar getting the slight edge. But this is where O’Neill’s speed comes into play.
Sprint speed helps measure how many feet per second a player runs in his fastest one-second window. In 2022, O’Neill’s sprint speed registered at 29.8 feet per second, which ranked in the top 3 percent of the league. Nootbaar and Carlson ranked at 28.2 and 28.1, respectively. All speeds are noteworthy, but O’Neill’s is the only measurement that is considered elite.
“When you’re looking at what (O’Neill) was able to do when he was playing center for us in Triple A, his best quality is his top speed,” manager Oli Marmol said earlier in the week. “For a center fielder, (top speed) can trump your first step, your routes and those types of things. So that’s where if you’re talking about a ceiling, his ability because of his top speed, to go and get a ball and cover more ground, that’s the best we have.”
In most areas, O’Neill projects to be an elite outfielder. One area he is lacking in is his acceleration. His sprint speed can compensate for a bad read off the bat or a subpar jump, but only if he can utilize that speed to its full potential in his route efficiency. The general consensus within the organization is because top speed is a natural trait, O’Neill has the best overall chance of becoming that elite center fielder. He just has to run harder when tracking balls en route.
“He has the highest upside in center field,” Marmol added. “If you could clean up some of his route and first-step stuff, then it would show his ability to go and get a baseball is one of the top in the league. So that’s why we’re giving him the opportunity, to see that.”
O’Neill’s trial period in center requires patience from Carlson and Nootbaar, who also remain in competition for the everyday job. Ideally, this would’ve taken place over spring training, but with Nootbaar and O’Neill both competing in the World Baseball Classic, there wasn’t an opportunity to fully evaluate all three players. Instead, the Cardinals are taking a gamble by experimenting with O’Neill during the first few weeks of the regular season. The argument to be made in the Cardinals’ favor here is that evaluating top speed does not require a mechanical adjustment or a tinkering of strategy. O’Neill, theoretically, should be able to make the adjustment of running his routes faster in real time.
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“With all these jump metrics and analytics now I understand more of the concept that is grading us out there,” O’Neill explained. “In the past, I’ve been more of a glider to balls. I try to be smooth out there and work behind the ball, obviously when I have to throw to bases you need to get over there quicker, but instinctually, I glide. It’s definitely something I need to work on, being a little quicker on that first step and not relying on my sprint speed as much as I have in the past.
“I feel like we can continue to improve on every aspect of my game: jumps, metrics, and continuing to take as many reps as I can to improve those direct routes and acceleration,” he added. “Working behind the ball, coming through it, throwing to the right bases, being a smart outfielder, I think that is all so key out there.”
Route efficiency is more or less what the Cardinals will evaluate O’Neill on when deciding whether he will be their permanent starting center fielder. The speed and athleticism are there. Whether or not O’Neill can combine both traits will dictate if he becomes the elite center fielder the Cardinals believe he can be.
“I’m figuring out how to be a captain in the outfield,” O’Neill said. “I feel like I’ve come a long way since the end of last year, and I’ll get more and more comfortable the more reps I get out there. I’m really enjoying it.
“I’m constantly reminding myself how big these gaps are and having to go get those balls, but that’s not an issue at all. I feel like I haven’t really been tested out there yet and I haven’t been able to show what I have in store out there for this organization and for the fans. I hope those opportunities come soon.”
(Top photo: Scott Kane / Associated Press)
